⚾ Yankees vs. Mariners Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (April 1)

We're closing in on first pitch between the New York Yankees (4-1) and Seattle Mariners (3-3), and the latest Yankees vs. Mariners win probability is virtually dead even as these teams wrap up a three-game series today (4:10 p.m. ET) at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.

The Yankees suffered their lone loss of the season on Monday but delivered the counterpunch Tuesday with a 5-0 road win over the Mariners. And the prediction market apps are split down the middle with Cam Schlittler (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and George Kirby (1-0, 1.50 ERA) facing off today - here's everything to know about this MLB matchup.

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🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Mariners today? Live MLB win probability

This market opened clearly in the Yankees' favor with a 72% expected win probability according to the percentages at Kalshi on Monday evening. But that plummeted to a 54/46 split in favor of the Mariners by late evening, and it's hovered around that mark in the days since - even after New York walloped Seattle on Tuesday.

It's not all that surprising to see the Mariners with the higher win probability ahead of first pitch with Kirby on the mound. The former All-Star endured a frustrating season in 2025, posting a career-worst 4.21 ERA in 23 starts, but he looked sharp through six innings of two-hit ball against the Guardians and should be well rested after that 90-pitch effort.

Schlittler became a household name last year in his electric playoff debut for the Yankees, and he was dialed in last week when he held the Giants' lineup to one hit with eight strikeouts across 5 1/3 innings. This has the makings of a pitcher's duel, which is likely why the market is still split despite nearly $225,000 in trading volume so far.

My prediction: Mariners win. I trust Kirby more than Schlittler in a one-game setting, and Seattle's lineup has gotten off to a better start than New York's bats so far. Our MLB expert Mike Spector is also targeting this game in his MLB player props today with a focus on Schlittler's strong road splits.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Yankees vs. Mariners today?

The two AL leaders in home runs last year face off today at T-Mobile Park, and it's no surprise to see the market rallying around Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh as the players with the highest likelihood to hit a home run on nearly $20,000 in trading volume so far.

Judge (2) and Giancarlo Stanton (1) are the only Yankees to hit a home run so far this season, while the Mariners have seen four players hit a moon shot - none of them Raleigh, ironically enough. Instead, Seattle's offense has been led by Luke Raley (3), Brendan Donovan (2), Dominic Canzone (2), and Cole Young (1) in the power department.

One thing to consider in this market: Judge and Raleigh are both 0-3 in their careers against the opposing pitcher today with three strikeout combined in those matchups.

My prediction: Giancarlo Stanton to hit a home run. The former MVP winner still possesses as much power as anyone when he's healthy, and he's been tattooing the ball through his first 20 at-bats. See all of our best home run predictions today from our MLB expert Sean Tomlinson.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Yankees vs. Mariners today?

While we've seen the percentages bounce around this afternoon, the market has told a pretty consistent story all day long: don't expect a run in the first inning.

It's a close call with a 42% chance of a run scored in the opening frame, but that's still an advantage for the "no" side of the coin. There were two runs scored in the first inning of Tuesday's game but no more scored across the first five frames of that 5-0 win for the Yankees, which came after a scoreless first inning in the Mariners' 2-1 win on Monday.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. I'm expecting a pitcher's duel between Schlittler and Kirby, who should be sharp from the opening pitch against two lineups in a funk.

📊 Yankees vs. Mariners win expectancy today

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Mariners today

• Date: Wednesday, April 1
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: T-Mobile Park (Seattle)
• TV: SEAM
• Yankees starter: Cam Schlittler (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
• Mariners starter: George Kirby (1-0, 1.50 ERA)