Yankees vs. Astros Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 4
My Yankees vs. Astros prediction gets to the bottom of Thursday’s rubber match at 7:40 p.m. ET from Daikin Park in Houston (MLB Network.)
New York surrendered four runs in last night’s 8-7 loss after earning a 7-1 win in Tuesday’s opener of this potential American League playoff preview.
The Yankees are the -140 betting favorite to claim the series victory, but I prefer to back the bats by taking the Over in tonight’s MLB picks. That’s also why I like the Over on 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs for Jazz Chisholm Jr.
⚾ Yankees vs. Astros expert picks & predictions
MLB expert picks made Thursday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Yankees ML (-134 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Yankees -1.5 (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Yankees vs. Astros preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬆️ Over 8.5 (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Over has moved at least 10 cents from the opening line, which provides insight into the early action. Ballpark Pal’s model projects a 5.75-4.41 victory for New York, listing a fair price of -155 for Over 8.5 runs.
These two teams have scored at least eight runs in all five head-to-head matchups of this season series, cashing the Over three times while pushing on one total.
The Over has delivered in both games of this series.
I’m banking on that trend continuing. Cristian Javier will make his fifth start of the year for Houston, but he has yet to throw more than 85 pitches. That could be a concern for a bullpen that has pitched eight innings over the last two nights.
If the game total gets too pricey, I’m open to taking New York’s team total (4.5) instead. For now, a $10 wager earns a profit of $8.70.
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💰 Best Yankees vs. Astros player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Chisholm is inching closer to the 30-30 club, which would make him the third player in Yankees history to record 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in the same season.
He’s currently at 28 homers and 26 stolen bases after clubbing two blasts on Tuesday.
I could see him getting one step closer with a home run on Thursday, but I’ll take the -105 price tag on this prop instead, especially since a $10 wager nets a $9.52 profit. THE BAT X’s model projects 2.26 hits, runs, and RBIs for Chisholm in the series finale.
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📊 Yankees vs. Astros odds: Sept. 4
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Yankees vs. Astros betting odds analysis
The Yankees started as -135 favorites, with the line moving five cents due to 52% of the bets coming in on their side. The total opened at 8.5, with a -115 shade to the Under. However, 59% of wagers have come in on the Over as of this writing.
🔢 Yankees vs. Astros stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Yankees | Statistic (per game) | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| 5.27 | Runs | 4.21 |
| 8.5 | Hits | 8.5 |
| .251 | AVG | .253 |
| .458 | SLG | .400 |
| .789 | OPS | .719 |
| 3.93 | ERA | 3.87 |
| 9.1 | K/9 | 9.6 |
| 3.5 | BB/9 | 3.1 |
| 1.1 | HR/9 | 1.2 |
🚑 Yankees vs. Astros injuries
📺 Yankees vs. Astros game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 4
- Kickoff: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where: Daikin Park (Houston)
- How to watch: MLB Network
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❓ Yankees vs. Astros FAQs
Who is favored to win Yankees vs. Astros?
The Yankees are the -140 betting favorite to defeat the Astros, giving them an implied probability of 58.33%.
What is the run line for Yankees vs. Astros?
New York is a -1.5 run line favorite against Houston.
What is the Over/Under for Yankees vs. Astros?
The total for Thursday’s Yankees-Astros matchup is 8.5.
What are the best bets for Yankees vs. Astros?
My best bets for tonight’s Yankees-Astros game are Over 8.5 and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs.
When is the Yankees vs. Astros game?
First pitch for Yankees vs. Astros is set for 7:40 p.m. ET on MLB Network.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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