⚾ What Will Be the Score of Mexico vs. Italy? Take the Under 7.5
Mexico faces Italy at 7 p.m. ET tonight in a Pool B finale that will determine which teams advance to the quarterfinals and whether Team USA's tournament hopes stay alive.
Here is everything you need to know for today's matchup, including scenarios for each team to advance. Let's answer the question that's on everyone's mind - what will be the score of Mexico vs. Italy?
🪢 Tiebreaker scenarios between Italy, Mexico, USA
Here's how every tiebreaker scenario plays out depending on what happens between Italy and Mexico today:
- Italy wins: Italy and USA advance to the quarterfinals
- Mexico wins and score five or more runs: Mexico and USA advance to the quarterfinals
- Mexico wins and scores four or less runs: Mexico and Italy advance to the quarterfinals
Let's run through some sample scores and see which country would advance to the quarterfinals as a result.
- Italy 6, Mexico 4: Italy and USA advance
- Mexico 5, Italy 4: Mexico and USA advance
- Mexico 4, Italy 3: Mexico and Italy advance
🤑 World Baseball Classic betting hub
Looking for bets for every single game during the tournament? Our World Baseball Classic betting guide has you covered.
🎯 What will the score be for Mexico vs. Italy?
| Market | Italy (3-0) | Mexico (2-1) |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +185 (FanDuel) | -235 (FanDuel) |
| Run Line | +2.5 (-130) | -2.5 (+105) |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (-110) |
| Team total | Under 3.5 (-182 at bet365) | Under 4.5 (-141 at bet365) |
| Prop | Race to five runs - neither | Race to five runs - neither |
Italy is expected to send Aaron Nola to the mound, providing a level of MLB vet stability that can neutralize a lineup chalk-full of big-league talent. Mexico will counter with a high-powered offense that has scored 29 runs across three games. I'm expecting Nola to do his part in keeping the Mexican bats at bay today, and for team Italy's offense to fall into a hangover after last night's win.
The sportsbooks believe this might be a pitcher's duel with the line set at 7.5, and I tend to agree. A quality outing for Nola, alongside Mexico's pitching staff, which has a combined 3.33 ERA this tournament, we're looking at a total closer to five runs. If Nola reaches his pitch count, Mexico's 'pen will shut the door on the other side.
Exact score prediction: Mexico 3, Italy 2 (Mexico and Italy advance, USA is eliminated)
🤑 More Mexico vs. Italy predictions
Want more Mexico vs. Italy predictions? Our Andrew Brennan sees Italy taking a tighlty contested matchup.
💰 How to bet Mexico vs. Italy
With Nola on the mound I think Italy has a great chance of keeping this ball game close and under the total. Sportsbooks have made a mistake pricing +2.5 runs for a team that's undefeated in pool play and coming off a major upset - the biggest in World Baseball Classic history. Don't forget, Italy beat Team USA with it's top-five hitters going a combined 0-for-22. What happens if they get some traffic on the base paths?
With two rock-solid starters and bullpens who have done a great job at limiting the opposition throughout the tournament, I'll be taking Italy on the run line and Under 7.5.
Mexico vs. Italy run line prediction: Italy +2.5 (-130)
Mexico vs. Italy total prediction: Under 7.5 (-110)
Mexico vs. Italy value bet: Race to five runs - neither (+140 at DraftKings)
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