⚾ WBC Quarterfinal Upset Rankings & Bracket: Why Italy is the Ultimate Sleeper

Based on the latest WBC odds, there is one team among the field of eight entering the quarterfinals that absolutely isn't getting the respect it deserves.

We see that 4-0 Dominican Republic is trading at +250, and 4-0 Japan is at +370. Yet, somehow, 4-0 Italy is priced at +1800, behind its quarterfinal opponent, Puerto Rico, which looked completely uninspiring during pool play.

This is the time to pounce on Italy, both for its upcoming quarterfinal game and on it to win the tournament outright, and it represents my best WBC long-shot pick as we look at our quarterfinal upset rankings.

🐕 How is Italy the underdog against Puerto Rico?

I can't wrap my head around this one. Italy just beat the brakes off a Mexico team that is infinitely more talented than Puerto Rico, and it's since had the advantage of remaining in Houston while Puerto Rico travels from San Juan to Daikin Park. And yet, Puerto Rico is a -130 moneyline favorite at DraftKings.

This is the easiest bet of the quarterfinals. I already smashed the Italy moneyline at +105 this morning, and I'd bet it as short as -130 or -135. It just should be the favorite for this game. Here's a taste of what Puerto Rico did in pool play:

• Beat Colombia by a smaller margin than Canada did the next day, despite it playing a true home game
• Required a walk-off homer to beat Panama, once again, at home
• Lost to Canada - a team priced at much longer odds to win the WBC than Italy is - in its final home game of the tournament

I'm sorry, Puerto Rico fans, but this team stinks. It shouldn't have stunk, mind you. It got the short end of the stick when it came to its players getting insurance for the tournament, but that doesn't change the fact that the roster it will trot out for this game against Italy is not good. 

Puerto Rico vs. Italy moneyline odds

As you can see, FanDuel and BetMGM are at least offering Italy at minus money, though it's still being priced as the underdog for whatever reason. I don't even know what DraftKings is doing. For what it's worth, Pinnacle, which is often considered a "sharp" book, has Italy listed as the favorite at -113.

🤔 Can Italy advance all the way to the finals?

As you can see, if Italy beats Puerto Rico, it'll go on to face the winner of Venezuela vs. Japan, and I think it has a decent chance of beating either. Yes, those teams are more talented, but Italy has already defeated two teams that were more talented on paper.

I discussed in my look at the WBC odds before the quarterfinals that I think this Italy team is very good with a bunch of MLB-caliber players. It plays a style of baseball that mentally beats up opponents, with its pitchers pounding the strike zone and its hitters grinding out plate appearances and ripping timely extra-base knocks.

Sure, USA started its B lineup in that game, but Italy also scored three runs off Nolan McLean, who was supposed to be Team USA's potential starter in the final before reports that Joe Ryan will join the team ahead of the quarterfinals.

Also, there's a betting element that's deeper than "I think Italy can beat Japan or Venezuela." If everything was even, I wouldn't back the Italians. But I believe the fact that Italy is trading at +1800 to +2000 is a pricing mistake. I don't see why Venezuela is trading at odds significantly shorter than Italy's. If I was setting these odds, I'd have Italy trading just behind Venezuela.

WBC odds vs. My price

So, yeah, do I think Italy is likely to win the WBC? Probably not. I thought USA would win it at the beginning of February, and I still think it'll win it. But, I think Italy represents the best bet on the oddsboard across our best sports betting sites in terms of implied probability vs. my projected probability of it winning the tournament.

🎯 Quarterfinal upset rankings

So, with the quarterfinals beginning today, let's look at the four games and rank them based on how likely an upset is to happen.

1. Italy beats Puerto Rico

I've said all I need to about this one. I think this would be incorrectly priced as an upset, but as far as the odds stand right now, it would qualify as one.

2. South Korea beats Dominican Republic

First, let me say that I think this Dominican Republic team is awesome. It's even more awesome with NL Cy Young contender Cristopher Sanchez on the mound. However, I think people are kind of sleeping on South Korea. This is a team that lost only 8-6 to Japan in a true road game at Tokyo Dome. I actually think South Korea will represent a really interesting betting option when run lines are released for this game. If it's trading as a +500 underdog, we could see it getting right around 5.5 runs, and I think it can cover that number.

3. Venezuela beats Japan

This gets a pretty big shrug for me. Venezuela is cool and fun, kind of the lesser version of the Dominican Republic. I don't think it has what it takes to beat the defending champions. This Japan team is just on another level. Most of the lineup is the same from the 2023 group that won the tournament, and reigning World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be on the mound for this one. I'm much more likely to bet on the favorites here.

4. Canada beats USA

This hurts me to write as a Canadian, but we're going to get smoked tomorrow night. I'm honestly just happy that we won our pool, and we beat the favored Puerto Rico in a true road game. That's what Canadian baseball fans need to hold on to for this tournament. But against Logan Webb and that American lineup, it's going to be a bloodbath. I think Team USA will be even more motivated to win following the recent pool-play embarrassment, and the players will take out their frustration on any Mike Soroka meatball they see.