Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction & MLB Playoff Odds Today: ALDS Game 1

Our Tigers vs. Guardians prediction for Game 1 of the ALDS expects the road underdogs to keep their momentum going and their undefeated postseason record alive.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 5, 2024 6:00 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Detroit Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter hits a single against the Houston Astros. We're backing Carpenter in our Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction. — Detroit Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter hits a single against the Houston Astros. Photo by Thomas Shea via Imagn Images.

The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians are familiar AL Central foes, but Saturday afternoon is the first-ever postseason meeting between the two franchises.

The Tigers swept the Astros in the Wild Card series, a team that had reached the ALCS in seven consecutive years
This is one of three Division Series between divisional opponents but Detroit and Cleveland last played on July 30
Both teams are +1000 by the World Series odds

We went 2-0 with our two game picks in the Tigers-Astros Wild Card series, and our Tigers vs. Guardians prediction for Game 1 of the ALDS calls for the road underdogs to stay unbeaten this postseason.

Tigers vs. Guardians predictions: Game 1

Moneyline pick: Tigers (+130 via BetMGM)
Kerry Carpenter player prop bet: Over 0.5 total bases (-155 via bet365)

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Tigers vs. Guardians?

First pitch: 1:08 p.m. ET, Progressive Field

Tigers to win (+130) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +130 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 43.38%

Detroit is going back to its formula that was so successful in Game 2 of the Wild Card series, using Tyler Holton as an opener.

Holton and six other relievers held Houston to two runs on five hits, and with all those arms benefitting from having the last two days off, manager A.J. Hinch has the flexibility to extend each one more if needed knowing innings-eater Tarik Skubal is lined up for Game 2.

The Tigers were 1-3 in the four games they faced Guardians righty Tanner Bibee, but three of those games were decided by one run.

Cleveland’s rotation finished tied for 23rd in ERA, and Detroit has not lost more than two games in a row since Aug. 11, while its offense ranked ninth or better in wRC+, OPS, and wOBA, and second in BABIP (.318) since then.

Cleveland will likely feel the pressure of winning this game knowing that the eventual AL Cy Young Award winner (Skubal) looms in Game 2. But that will have Detroit playing loose and confident in Game 1, and I am taking advantage of this best number at BetMGM, as other top sports betting sites like FanDuel have +124 to back the underdogs.

A $10 winning wager at BetMGM would net $13 in profits.

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Prediction: Kerry Carpenter Over 0.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kerry Carpenter went 1-for-6 in two Wild Card games, but he still entered the playoffs as one of the hottest hitters in the Tigers lineup.

In his last three healthy months - which spanned May, August, and September because of injuries - Carpenter had produced a .903 OPS or better in each month. And over the last 15 days, Carpenter slashed .286/.355/.643, with four of his eight hits going for extra bases.

Carpenter is 2-for-4 with a home run against Bibee, and we are getting great value on this total bases prop, considering his odds of recording a hit are as high as -185 (carrying a 64.91% implied probability) at FanDuel.

Best odds: -155 via bet365 | Implied probability: 60.78%

Tigers vs. Guardians odds & game info

When: Saturday, Oct. 5
First pitch: 1:08 p.m. ET
Where: Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio)
How to watch: TBS, truTV, Max
Favorite: Guardians (-150 via BetMGM)

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”