Rockies vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Back Skenes for Dominant Outing

Paul Skenes takes the mound looking to bolster his Cy Young odds as the Pittsburgh Pirates look to complete a three-game home sweep of the Colorado Rockies. I had to get creative to return value given Pittsburgh’s steep -350 moneyline odds at the best sports betting sites when making my Rockies vs. Pirates prediction.

This is the earliest start time of all Sunday’s games, with first pitch from PNC Park set for 12:05 p.m. ET, streaming on Roku.

My Rockies vs. Pirates best bets double down on the expectation that Pittsburgh will cruise to victory by backing one of Skenes’ player props.

⚾ Rockies vs. Pirates prediction & odds

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💰 Rockies vs. Pirates prediction & best bet

✅ Rockies vs. Pirates prediction: Pirates -1.5 (-155 via BetMGM)

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Colorado is not only the worst team in the majors, it also owns the worst road record, winning just 16 of its 64 games away from Coors Field. It has not fared much better from a run line perspective in that split, and laying the -1.5 runs is a great way to optimize betting value with my Rockies vs. Pirates prediction.

The fact that Paul Skenes has a massive 81.82% implied probability to win the Cy Young based on DraftKings’ -450 odds suggests all you need to know about his dominance despite owning a 7-9 record.

Among pitchers with a minimum of 200 innings pitched since the start of last season, Skenes ranks first in ERA (2.07), fourth in opponents’ average (.198), second in opponents’ OPS (.558), fifth in strikeout rate (30.7%), third in WAR (12.0), and third in FIP (2.45).

Pittsburgh has covered the run line in five of its last six victories when Skenes toes the rubber. Meanwhile, Colorado has covered the run line in just 42.2% of its games as a road ‘dog (27-37), and it would take a herculean effort from its pitching staff to match zeros with Pittsburgh’s ace this afternoon.

The implied probability for the Pirates to cover the run line is as high as 62.41% through FanDuel’s -166 odds, so we are getting great value in comparison at BetMGM, where a $10 winning wager would net $6.45 in profits.

📊 Live Rockies vs. Pirates odds: Sunday, 12:05 p.m. ET

💰 Best Rockies vs. Pirates player prop

✅ Best Rockies vs. Pirates player prop: Paul Skenes Under 1.5 earned runs (-150 via bet365)

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Skenes cruised along through five scoreless innings in an early August road start against Colorado before one rough inning turned what would’ve been a dominant start into a poor one. But since he is making this start in the friendly confines of PNC Park and not the altitude of Coors Field, this is my most confident Rockies vs. Pirates player prop.

Skenes has pitched to a 1.81 ERA and .193 OBA in 12 home starts. He has allowed one or fewer earned runs in eight of those 12, and zero earned runs in five of his previous six. Thus, blanking a Rockies lineup that ranks dead-last in the majors in batting average, strikeout percentage, runs per game, and wRC+ in road games this season should be no trouble.

The other angle I considered playing is for Skenes to record the win, where bet365 has -105 betting odds (carrying a 51.22% implied probability). But I prefer this play where he takes matters into his own hands and does not have to rely on run support which he has infrequently gotten this year.

🤑 Rockies vs. Pirates betting insights

Let's dive into what the public is betting on when it comes to the Sunday matinee game, courtesy of BetMGM.

The Pirates are dominating the handle, which means big money is moving in Pittsburgh's direction. With Skenes on the mound, who can blame them?

The Over is receiving 60% of the bets and handle here, which means bettors are not only liking Pittsburgh's chances to win, but to put up runs in bunches against McCade Brown, who is making his big-league debut.

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❓MLB betting FAQs

How do betting odds work?

Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common. 

What is the run line in baseball?

The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.

What does moneyline mean in betting?

The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet - just pick the winner.

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