Reds vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Will Cincinnati Struggle Again in a Burns Start?

Will Pittsburgh continue to have its way with Cincinnati tonight?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 8, 2025 7:01 AM EDT • 3 minute read

Reds vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Friday, Aug. 8 — Pictured: Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns pitches as we make our best Reds vs. Pirates prediction. Photo by Katie Stratman via Imagn Images.

The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates continue their four-game series from PNC Park tonight, and we have you covered with our Reds vs. Pirates prediction. First is set for 6:40 p.m. ET, streaming on Apple TV+.

The best sports betting sites have this game as a pick’em, but the recent trends in this head-to-head matchup have us backing Pittsburgh while still expecting a big day from Cincinnati leadoff man TJ Friedl as part of our Reds vs. Pirates best bets.

Reds vs. Pirates prediction: Pirates to win (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Best Reds vs. Pirates player props: TJ Friedl Over 0.5 runs (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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💰 Reds vs. Pirates prediction & best bet

✅ Reds vs. Pirates prediction: Pirates to win (-108 via FanDuel)

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Pittsburgh has had its way with Cincinnati at home over the last three seasons, winning 16 of the last 21 meetings at PNC Park and holding the Reds to fewer than three runs per game over that span. That is a big enough sample size to again confidently back Pittsburgh with my Reds vs. Pirates prediction.

Reds righty Chase Burns is making an unconventional start in this game, after his latest outing at the MLB Speedway Classic was cut to one inning because of rain. That is Burns’ only work in the previous 12 days, and the only time he had a similar layoff, the light-hitting Washington Nationals lit him up for six runs over 5 2/3 innings after he hadn’t pitched for 11 days.

These -108 odds (carrying a 51.92% implied probability) are more than justified for my Reds vs. Pirates best bet, as Cincinnati has lost six straight Burns starts following his MLB debut. However, this is only a three-star play as we are going against the market’s line movement since Pittsburgh was as high as a -120 moneyline favorite last night.

💰 Best Reds vs. Pirates player props

✅ Best Reds vs. Pirates player prop: TJ Friedl Over 0.5 runs (+105 via DraftKings)

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Friedl has had his share of troubles against Pittsburgh righty Mitch Keller in his career. But the way he has hit of late, we are getting creative with our best Reds vs. Pirates player props and are expecting him to overcome the struggles in this head-to-head matchup.

The Reds' leadoff hitter has just two hits in 21 career at-bats against Keller, good for a .095/.160/.143 slash line in a large sample size. But Friedl also has an active nine-game hitting streak with five multi-hit games and five runs scored in that span.

Even if his hit streak comes to an end, there is value in him scoring a run considering Keller has issued three walks in two of his previous three starts.

A $10 winning wager through DraftKings’ +105 odds would net $10.50 in profits.

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❓MLB betting FAQs

How do betting odds work?

Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.

What is the run line in baseball?

The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.

What does moneyline mean in betting?

The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet - just pick the winner.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”