Reds vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Skenes Set to Dominate Again
The wild-card chase continues for one team in our Reds vs. Pirates prediction, but the other gives us the potential spotlight performance of a short getaway day slate.
It's Paul Skenes Day as he looks to keep pulling away in the Cy Young odds. The Reds will need to break through against him to keep pace in the wild-card hunt. They're currently three games back of the final position in the National League.
Pittsburgh is widely the favorite at around -175 as we make our Reds vs. Pirates best bets. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh (MLB Network).
- Reds vs. Pirates prediction: Pirates to win (-169 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Best Reds vs. Pirates player props: Paul Skenes Under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
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✅ Reds vs. Pirates prediction: Pirates to win (-169 via BetMGM)
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It's important to remember a simple fact about Pittsburgh whenever you're making any pick tied to them: they're bad.
Beyond bad, really, they also importantly rank dead last in runs scored by a wide margin. However, Skenes regularly leaves minimal lifting to be done with his league-leading 2.02 ERA, and even the Pirates could put up a few runs against Brady Singer.
The latter is key to our Reds vs. Pirates prediction. As noted in our best NRFI bets today, Singer has been effective against the Pirates. But his average exit velocity sits in just the 19th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. And opposing batters are also slugging .454 against his sinker, a pitch he throws the most at 41.1%.
Trusting Pittsburgh's offense is never a fun time, including for your Reds vs. Pirates best bet. But the bet is a little less sweaty with Skenes on the mound.
💰 Best Reds vs. Pirates player props
✅ Best Reds vs. Pirates player prop: Paul Skenes Under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-130 via DraftKings)
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Even Skenes isn't immune to the pitching horrors that come with an outing at Coors Field, as he's coming off an uncharacteristic result in his last outing that featured four earned runs allowed.
But that looks like a mere pot hole on the road to likely Cy Young glory for the second-year dynamo. Incredibly, he went at least five scoreless innings in four of his previous five outings before the blip in Colorado. The two-time All-Star has produced nine shutouts over 23 starts this season, and 14 with one run or fewer given up.
He's an unhittable beast. That of course shows up on a Savant paging dripping with red, most notably a 96th percentile fastball velocity (98.1 mph), a napalm-infused pitch that's nearly impossible to square up, resulting in a 90th percentile barrel rate.
📈 Reds vs. Pirates betting insights
Here are some betting insights from BetMGM in the hours before first pitch:
- Skenes to go Over 7.5 strikeouts at -110 is the most-bet prop through BetMGM today
- However, the Reds earning an upset win at +140 is getting the third-most action on the moneyline
- The Under on 7 runs is getting 76% of the bets and 73% of the handle
💡 Expert MLB predictions today
- MLB home run predictions
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- Best NRFI bets today
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❓MLB betting FAQs
How do betting odds work?
Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.
What is the run line in baseball?
The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.
What does moneyline mean in betting?
The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet - just pick the winner.
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