Reds vs. Mets Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Can New York End Cincinnati’s Winning Streak?

Don't expect Clay Holmes to go deep into the ballgame today - we've found a plus-money player prop that you have to play.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: July 19, 2025 8:10 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Mets vs. Reds prediction and best bets — Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes - who's highlighted in our Reds vs. Mets predictions - pitches during the first inning. Photo by: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Cincinnati Reds (51-47) look for their fourth consecutive win when they face the New York Mets (55-43) in the middle game of a three-game series. Our Reds vs. Mets prediction finds a creative way to get a better payout given that New York is a -180 moneyline favorite at our best sports betting sites.

Our Reds vs. Mets best bets do not expect a long outing from one of the team’s starting pitchers, and backs his player prop accordingly. First pitch for this National League matchup from Citi Field in Queens is set for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLBN).

Reds vs. Mets prediction: Mets first five innings moneyline (-165 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best Reds vs. Mets player props: Clay Holmes Under 4.5 strikeouts (+132 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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✅ Reds vs. Mets prediction: Mets first five innings moneyline (-165 via BetMGM)

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The Reds continued their trend of remaining the only MLB team to have never been swept in a series of at least three games this season after yesterday’s 8-4 win in the series opener. However, our Reds vs. Mets prediction expects a different result today.

If New York’s season plays out anything like last year, it will surge in the second half. The Mets went 40-27 after the All-Star Break last season following a 49-46 start, and rode that momentum all the way to the NLCS.

Today’s starting pitcher, Clay Holmes, has recorded 15 or fewer outs in five of his previous six starts, which is a big reason for limiting our Reds vs. Mets best bet to the first five innings moneyline.

This is still a Mets team that had the best record in the majors through June 12, and whose 33-15 home record is also the league’s best. I expect Holmes to get the team off to a strong start, while they play inspired after the pregame ceremony of David Wright’s number retirement.

There is certainly value on this wager compared to the full game moneyline odds, which are as high as -185 betting odds at BetMGM, carrying a 64.91% implied probability.

💰 Best Reds vs. Mets player props

✅ Best Reds vs. Mets player prop: Clay Holmes Under 4.5 strikeouts (+132 via FanDuel)

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An interesting league-wide trend emerged from the first half of the season, as the strikeout rate is the lowest it has been since 2017. Add that with the fact the Mets seem to be conscious of limiting Holmes’ innings in his first season converted from a relief pitcher, and you have the makings of a low strikeout ceiling.

Holmes has recorded two or fewer strikeouts in three of his last four starts, and he has as many walks as strikeouts (10 apiece) in that span.

Cincinnati has the third-highest BABIP against right-handed pitchers this season, which has me overlooking the fact that it strikes out at the sixth-highest rate in that split.

I am backing the Under on Holmes’ strikeouts as my best Reds vs. Mets player prop at FanDuel, the only top sports betting site offering plus-money odds at Under 4.5. The others are juiced as high as -160 to back the Under at a higher total of 5.5 strikeouts.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”