Red Sox vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Wheeler Continues March Toward 1st Cy Young Award

Zack Wheeler is looking for his first Cy Young Award after years of narrowly missing out, and we're backing him to continue his stellar season tonight against the Red Sox.

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: July 21, 2025 12:49 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Red Sox vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Monday, July 21 — Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler headlines our Red Sox vs. Phillies prediction. Photo by David Frerker via Imagn Images.

We have an exciting interleague showdown between two teams with postseason aspirations, but our Red Sox vs. Phillies prediction thinks it'll be the home team that separates itself as the true contender here.

Citizens Bank Park plays host to this game, which gets underway at 6:45 p.m. ET, with Walker Buehler getting the ball for the visitors against Cy Young odds favorite Zack Wheeler.

Philadelphia serves as a massive betting favorite in this one, and our Red Sox vs. Phillies best bets back the favorites thanks to a big performance by Wheeler.

Red Sox vs. Phillies prediction: Phillies to win (-215 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Best Red Sox vs. Phillies player props: Zack Wheeler daily strikeout leader (+300 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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✅ Red Sox vs. Phillies prediction: Phillies moneyline (-215 via FanDuel)

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I don't know that I believe the Phillies should be priced this short on the moneyline, but I can't in good faith recommend betting on the Red Sox to win when they're going up against Wheeler and are sending Buehler to the hill.

Wheeler is coming off his worst start of the season on the road against the Padres and will be hungry to right the ship tonight against a Red Sox team that owns one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball.

Our Red Sox vs. Phillies prediction is really taking this pitching matchup into account, and though these offenses may be more evenly matched than perhaps the names on the lineup cards suggest, Philadelphia obviously has a massive advantage on the mound.

It's hard to fade Wheeler, especially at home where he owns a 1.91 ERA (compared to 2.89 on the road). I'd likely just leave the moneyline alone for this game, but if I was to take a side, I'd go with the Phillies.

💰 Best Red Sox vs. Phillies player props

✅ Best Red Sox vs. Phillies player prop: Zack Wheeler daily strikeout leader (+300 via ESPN BET)

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I love this bet, and I'd much rather attack these big plus-money odds than bet on Wheeler's strikeout total for our best Red Sox vs. Phillies player props.

Wheeler easily owns the highest strikeout projection today, and that's via multiple projection models. Of course, anything can happen, but based on the data, the only two players who pose a real threat today are Carlos Rodon - who faces a Toronto Blue Jays team that just doesn't strike out - and Paul Skenes, who's been limited to five innings and a limited number of pitches lately.

After them, you have Jack Flaherty and Shane Baz (the latter burned me in this market before), but I think they'll fall just short of Wheeler's total tonight.

I expect Wheeler to go deep into tonight's game and likely rack up double-digit Ks en route to the victory.

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Written by:
Andrew Brennan

Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.