Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Props 9-3
The Boston Red Sox and New York Mets each look to inch closer to a wild-card playoff spot when they meet in the second game of a three-game series Tuesday.
My Red Sox vs. Mets prediction analyzes the red-hot Mets, who have won five straight games and are now a half-game out of an NL Wild Card playoff berth after winning the series opener 4-1 against Boston on Monday.
It's the first time New York has been 10 games over .500 (74-64) since the end of the 2022 season, while Boston is going the other way, having lost three straight and slipping to 4 1/2 games back of the final American League playoff spot.
As a result, the Mets range from -125 to -130 moneyline favorites at our best sports betting sites with first pitch from Citi Field scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. While Francisco Lindor has a 13-game hitting streak and has reached base safely in 31 consecutive games, a Mets pitcher and a Red Sox hitter catch our eye from a player prop perspective.
Red Sox vs. Mets prediction
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Under 8 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Mets have won five consecutive games when David Peterson has toed the rubber, and opponents have scored just eight total runs in that span. However, instead of backing New York’s moneyline odds, the better value lies with the Under. The Mets had averaged fewer than four runs per game over their last five home games before Monday, and Boston has scored one or zero runs in four of its last five.
This is a four-star play, as Boston’s Kutter Crawford has pitched to a 3.71 ERA and .180 OBA over his last three starts, while the Red Sox rank 18th in wRC+ and wOBA and 24th in BABIP in road games against southpaws since the start of August.
Our best sports betting apps have this lined with 8.0 runs, but only BetMGM offers the Under at odds better than -108. A $10 winning wager pays out $19.52.
Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Red Sox vs. Mets player props
MLB picks made Tuesday at 6:22 a.m. ET.
Prediction: David Peterson Under 1.5 earned runs ⭐⭐⭐
The Mets have won Peterson's last five starts, and he has recorded three wins in that span. The most impressive part about his 1.65 ERA, which leads all NL-qualified starting pitchers in that span, is that his last three starts have come against top-six offenses.
Peterson’s success is largely due to his ability to keep the ball in the yard (6.5% HR/FB rate) with an elite 47.9% ground ball rate. He has as high as a 45.45% implied probability to finish with one or fewer earned runs based on Caesars’ +120 odds, and that is a great value given Boston’s team total of O/U 3.5 runs.
A $10 winning wager would return $13.20 in profits.
Best odds: +132 via bet365 | Implied probability: 43.10%
Prediction: Rafael Devers Under 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Devers has been much better against right-handed pitchers than lefties all season, slashing .306/.392/.646 against righties and .243/.303/.399 against southpaws.
He missed three games last week due to shoulder soreness, and in the four games since he has been back, he has gone a combined 1-for-17 with four strikeouts. Just one of Devers’ last five hits have gone for extra bases, and he has not had a multi-hit game since August 18.
I am shocked to still be able to get plus-money odds to back the Under for a player in this bad of a slump. The +125 odds at bet365 trump the value of the +115 odds at DraftKings, and given that the latter offers +350 odds for Devers to have a multi-hit day, oddsmakers are suggesting he will need an extra-base hit to go Over this total bases prop.
I am riding Devers’ slump with a $10 wager, hoping to turn that into a return of $22.50.
Best odds: +125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 44.44%
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Red Sox vs. Mets odds & game info
- When: Tuesday, Sept. 3
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where: Citi Field, New York
- How to watch: TBS
- Favorite: Mets (-125 via DraftKings)
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