⚾ Boston Red Sox MLB Futures Bets 2026: Are Offseason Moves Enough to Win AL East?

The Boston Red Sox may not have done as much this offseason as their fans hoped, but they still made a number of intriguing moves. Were they enough to justify a bet on Boston to win the division, though? I answer that question as part of my Red Sox predictions and AL East picks.

The biggest problem facing bettors who want to wager money on their favorite pick to win the AL East is that the best sports betting sites have priced baseball's most popular division more appropriately than really any other. The edges are small to non-existent, no matter who you bet on. Therefore, this is one time when you can ignore "value" and simply bet on what you think is the best team.

🧦 How you should bet on the Red Sox in MLB futures markets

I think you can leave the AL East winner market completely alone during spring training if you want to remain disciplined in your betting. You don't need to bet on every market that exists. However, if you are going to bet on it, I think the Red Sox profile as a perfectly fine option.

If you choose to look elsewhere, there are a number of player futures markets that offer a ton of value. Let's dive into both potential choices.

Red Sox to win AL East

There are four legitimate contenders to win the AL East this season, but I think the Red Sox offer the highest floor of the bunch. By FanGraphs' team WAR projections, the Blue Jays (47.9) and Yankees (47.3) are slightly ahead of the Red Sox (46.1), but I like Boston's profile more for repeatedly winning regular-season games, and that comes down to how said WAR is divided.

As you can see, Boston's projections are much more balanced. Of the three teams, the Red Sox have the best rotation after adding Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray to a group that featured AL Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet and one of my 10 breakout MLB players to watch this season, Brayan Bello.

In addition to the powerhouse rotation, Boston added Willson Contreras as its full-time first baseman and Caleb Durbin to play third base. Neither was a flashy move, but each did provide a significant upgrade over the in-house options.

The Red Sox don't feature traditional MVP candidates who can carry a ballclub through the exhausting summer months, but there's enough depth and pitching here that I believe Boston is just as likely to win the AL East as the Yankees and Blue Jays are, and it has the longest odds of the three.

AL Cy Young

If the AL East winner betting market makes you a bit nervous, may I instead interest you in betting on one of the five best pitchers in baseball?

Crochet finished second in AL Cy Young voting last year in what was essentially his first season with a full workload. And boy, was it ever a full workload. Crochet led the AL in innings pitched, he paced all pitchers in strikeouts, and he threw the third-most pitches in the league. The Red Sox leaned on him, and they'll do so again this year.

The big question mark in this race is not whether Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in the league. Though Crochet is incredible in his own right, if all things are equal, Skubal should win this award. But they aren't equal.

Skubal is a free agent after this season, and the Tigers could opt to trade him for a massive haul ahead of the deadline. Did they sign Framber Valdez to pair with Skubal long term, or to replace him? If it's the latter, Crochet gets a massive boost in this market, and if he pitches like he did in 2025, he would run away with the award.

As it stands, I think Crochet is very much worth a bet even if Skubal stays in Detroit all year, as their 2026 projections are as close as it gets:

Player futures

Sonny Gray projects as one of the best pitchers in the majors this season, and that's why I featured him in my MLB bounce-back candidates to watch this season. However, I can't justify betting on him to win AL Cy Young because I think, no matter how good he is, he won't be the best pitcher on his own team. Therefore, as I wrote in that article, my favorite bet when it comes to a Gray bounce-back season is for him to record 200-plus strikeouts, which is trading at +600 at Caesars compared to +330 at DraftKings.

Similarly, I can't really get behind betting on Roman Anthony to win AL MVP at what are relatively short odds. He just doesn't have the ceiling (yet) to challenge the game's biggest stars. However, he's expected to serve as Boston's leadoff hitter this year, and I love betting on him to record 150-plus hits as a result. I featured him in my 10 MLB players to watch this season.

Playing on Anthony's ability to get on base, I also love backing Trevor Story to record 80-plus RBIs as the No. 2 hitter. The Red Sox also have a talented bottom third of the order, which could provide Story with more RBI opportunities when the lineup turns over.

Jarren Duran has been the subject of trade rumors for the last couple of years, and I think if Boston does want to move him ahead of the deadline for perhaps an impact starter or a power bat (or even some prospects if the Red Sox aren't performing as expected), the team will want to showcase the speedster as much as possible. Duran is one of the fastest players in the majors, and if he gets upward of 35 opportunities, he should eclipse 30 steals.

💰 AL East picks: Bets I've made on this division

I noted in my look at the MLB projected win totals and Over/Under wins odds that I just simply don't think the Rays are getting enough respect in this market. 

Meanwhile, Pete Alonso in his new hitter-friendly stadium headlines our MLB home run leader odds and picks. He's already crushed two bombs in spring, and depending when you're reading this, that total could be rising.