Pirates vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 11

My Pirates vs. Orioles prediction looks for the road 'dogs to take the series finale on the strength of a strong pitching performance.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 11, 2025 7:33 AM EDT • 5 minute read

Pirates vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 11 — Pictured: Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Johan Oviedo (24) delivers a pitch. Photo by Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The Pittsburgh Pirates already used ace Paul Skenes in yesterday’s loss. However, today’s starting pitcher still gives me enough confidence to back them in this interleague series finale against the Baltimore Orioles as I make my Pirates vs. Orioles prediction. This matchup from Camden Yards kicks off the nine-game MLB slate, with first pitch set for 1:05 p.m. ET.

The Orioles are the -150 moneyline betting favorite, but I am adding my best Johan Oviedo player prop to my MLB picks, along with backing the Pirates to avoid the three-game sweep.

⚾ Pirates vs. Orioles prediction

MLB expert picks made Thursday; odds subject to change.

Moneyline pick: Pirates (+130 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Run line pick: Pirates +1.5 (-160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

📝 Pirates vs. Orioles preview & best bet

Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.

🏴‍☠️ Pirates ML (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Although it is too little too late, Baltimore has enjoyed a late-season resurgence in a spoiler role. It swept a San Diego Padres team fighting to win the NL West, and won a series against the other contender in that division, the Los Angeles Dodgers. But there is always potential for a letdown when facing an inferior opponent, which is why I am backing Pittsburgh with my Pirates vs. Orioles best bet.

Baltimore ranked in the top-half of the league in wRC+ in the 19 games leading up to this series. But Mike Burrows and five relievers held the Orioles to six hits over 11 innings on Monday, and Paul Skenes did what he has done his entire career in a dominant two-hit and five-scoreless inning effort yesterday.

Pittsburgh may rank dead-last in the majors in BABIP against southpaws in road games since the start of August. However, it will eventually take advantage of its patience at the plate and on the basepaths, as it ranks second in the majors with a 12.2% walk rate in that split. Orioles southpaw Cade Povich will likely help that trend, as he has issued multiple walks in four of his previous five starts.

Pirates backers will find the best value at Caesars, the only top sports betting site offering better than +125 odds. Through its +130 odds and 43.48% implied probability, a $10 winning wager would net $13 in profits.

💰 Best Pirates vs. Orioles player prop bet

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Johan Oviedo Over 4.5 strikeouts (-136) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Though Baltimore had seen much more offensive success in the three weeks leading up to this series, it was still striking out at a 26.6% clip, the third-worst in the majors. Pirates pitchers have already combined for 24 strikeouts in the two games this series (14 coming from their starting pitchers), which is why I am backing this Over confidently as my best Pirates vs. Orioles player prop.

Johan Oviedo has struck out five or more batters in three of his five starts this season. He had a strikeout rate of 20.2% or better in each of the two seasons prior to missing last year with Tommy John surgery. But he has looked like a completely different pitcher in his return, on pace for career bests in K rate (28.9%) and barrels (4.3%), while pitching to an eye-popping 2.63 xERA.

Oviedo’s implied probability to record at least five strikeouts is as high as 60% through -150 odds at several of our top sports betting sites. FanDuel’s -136 odds are the best price, and a $10 winning wager would return $7.35 in profits.

📊 Pirates vs. Orioles odds: Sept. 11

MLB odds update live in real time.

📈 Pirates vs. Orioles betting odds analysis

After opening as -150 moneyline favorites, the Orioles have remained relatively stable at that price.

But their odds could increase slightly before first pitch after two narrow one-run victories in extra innings. The total has not budged from 8.5, and the -120/+100 split between the Over and Under has remained constant across all the best sports betting sites.

🔢 Pirates vs. Orioles stats

Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.

Pirates (64-82)	Statistic (per game)	Orioles (68-77)
3.61	Runs	4.33
7.70	Hits	8.08
.232	AVG	.240
.350	SLG	.402
.656	OPS	.709
3.82	ERA	4.55
8.10	K/9	8.20
2.92	BB/9	3.22
0.95	HR/9	1.35

🚑 Pirates vs. Orioles injuries

📺 Pirates vs. Orioles game info

When: Thursday, Sept. 11
First pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
Where: Camden Yards (Baltimore)
How to watch: Local TV

💡 Expert MLB predictions today

❓ Pirates vs. Orioles FAQs

Who is favored to win Pirates vs. Orioles?

The Orioles are the -150 betting favorite to beat the Pirates at home today.

What is the run line for Pirates vs. Orioles?

Pittsburgh’s +1.5 odds are at -175 on the high end of the market, while Baltimore’s -1.5 odds range from +135 to +145.

What is the Over/Under for Pirates vs. Orioles?

The O/U is at 8.5 runs across all the best sports betting apps, and it’s juiced to -120 for the Over and +100 for the Under.

What are the best bets for Pirates vs. Orioles?

My Pirates vs. Orioles best bets back Pittsburgh (+130) to win as road underdogs and for Johan Oviedo Over 4.5 strikeouts (-136).

When is the Pirates vs. Orioles game?

The Pirates vs. Orioles first pitch is set for 1:05 p.m. ET, airing on local television.

How do baseball odds work?

When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”