⚾ Pirates vs. Mets Prediction Today: MLB Odds, Picks & Parlay
Opening Day is here - aside from last night’s lone game - and the full MLB slate kicks off with the Pittsburgh Pirates facing the New York Mets at Citi Field in Queens, N.Y., at 1:15 p.m. ET (NBC; streaming on Peacock). New York is listed as a -120 betting favorite on the moneyline.
My Pirates vs. Mets prediction today breaks down the matchup between reigning Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes and Freddy Peralta, who is set to make his Mets debut, with New York projected to come out on top. While Peralta is expected to impress, I’ve also singled out a Pirates slugger as a home run pick. I’m not stopping there - I also have four additional plays in my MLB player props today.
⚾ Pirates vs. Mets picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets ML | -116 via FanDuel | 1u → 0.86u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Freddy Peralta Under 1.5 walks allowed | +155 via bet365 | 1u → 1.55u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Oneil Cruz to hit a home run | +320 via FanDuel | 0.5u → 1.6u | ⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 4.01 units
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🏆 Who will win Pirates vs. Mets?
The Mets are MLB’s best team on Opening Day, compiling a 41-24 record (.631 winning percentage). That winning percentage is even more impressive when considering the franchise lost its first eight Opening Day games, and have won 41 of 56 since. I am not going against that history despite facing the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner.
Score prediction: Mets 4, Pirates 3
💰 Pirates vs. Mets prediction & best bet
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Mets ML (-116)
It’s hard to oppose Paul Skenes, who led the league in ERA, FIP, and WHIP last year, while tying for fourth in strikeouts. But Skenes also only finished 10-10, while the Pirates were just 3-7 through his first 10 starts. That included a 4-3 loss to the Mets in a May 12 road start in which he allowed nine combined walks and hits, tied for his second-most allowed all season.
Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta went 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA against the Pirates last year, and has only suffered one loss to PIttsburgh since the start of the 2022 season.
🔥 Best Pirates vs. Mets player prop bet
Freddy Peralta Under 1.5 walks allowed (+155)
The 39.22% implied odds for this wager suggest that Peralta will be amped up and possibly overthrowing in his first start as a Met. But he also is coming off allowing just four walks over 15 ⅓ innings spanning three starts against the Pirates last year.
With the Under on his 15.5 outs recorded juiced as high as -185 (carrying a 64.91% implied probability) at DraftKings, that does not leave Peralta many innings or pitches to exceed this projected total.
Peralta’s .722 winning percentage in March/April is his second-best of any month, and his .287 on-base percentage allowed in that first month is his second-best of any month pre-All Star break.
Peralta only walked one batter through his first two starts last year, despite a big workload and a high average pitch count of 95 pitches per start.
If you're looking for some action on the man opposite Peralta, we have a Skenes play lined up in our MLB best bets for Opening Day.
💣 Pirates vs. Mets home run prediction
Oneil Cruz to hit a home run (+320)
Picking any Mets player to homer is a risky proposition, unless you expect them to hit one off Pirates relievers, as Paul Skenes led the league last year with a 0.5 HR/9 rate. Thus, I am targeting a Pittsburgh player even though the Pirates ranked dead-last with 117 team home runs last year, 107 fewer than the top-five Mets home-run hitting lineup.
Oneil Cruz’s only hit in 13 career at-bats against Peralta is a home run. And while Peralta may not have struggled with command early on last season, he was tagged for two home runs in his first start, and allowed three total home runs over his first three starts (spanning 18 innings).
🚀 Pirates vs. Mets same-game parlay
Backing the Mets to win outright and Peralta to walk one or fewer batters plays nicely together, but we would want Cruz to hit either only a solo home run, or a meaningless home run late off of Mets relievers. Either way, the best value for this same-game parlay is through bet365, as it's the only top sports betting site offering better than +145 odds on Peralta's walks prop.
💵 Pirates vs. Mets SGP picks
- Mets ML (-120)
- Freddy Peralta Under 1.5 walks allowed (+155)
- Oneil Cruz to hit a home run (+310)
Best odds: +1817 via bet365 (0.25u -> 4.54u)
🤑 Latest Pirates vs. Mets betting splits
Here's Corey Scott's analysis of the latest Pirates vs. Mets betting splits (h/t BetMGM):
| Bet type 📊 | Ticket % 🎟️ | Handle % 💰 |
|---|---|---|
| Pirates ML (+105) | 65% | 54% |
| Mets ML (-115) | 35% | 46% |
| Pirates +1.5 (-220) | 54% | 49% |
| Mets -1.5 (+180) | 46% | 51% |
| Over 7 (-120) | 62% | 62% |
| Under 7 (+100) | 38% | 38% |
Very balanced betting splits for BetMGM in this game.
Paul Skenes is always going to dominate the ticket percentage among the public, and it's not out of the ordinary for moneyline favorite bettors to wager more on average than those betting on underdogs. The Over being a more popular bet is common as well, especially since it opened at 6.5 (under the key number of 7).
- Corey Scott
💡 How I'm betting Pirates vs. Mets: MLB strategy
In backing the Mets to win outright, I am expecting them to outlast Paul Skenes while Freddy Peralta matches zeros, and hoping New York will get to Pittsburgh's bullpen. With that logic, I wouldn't put anyone off backing the first five innings Under. Those odds are not available as of this writing, but would likely hold the most value at FanDuel, who is the only sportsbook with an O/U of 7 runs while the rest of the market is at 6.5.
There are other Pirates sluggers I had my eye on for the home run prop, like Joey Bart (+900) and Bryan Reynolds (+700) who have also homered in their careers off Peralta, but Cruz has the most upside as the batter with the most projected home runs for the season of those three.
📊 Live Pirates vs. Mets odds
New York's moneyline odds range from -116 to -125, but I'd expect that to move slightly in Pittsburgh's favor with ace Paul Skenes on the bump. In addition, the Pirates have picked up steam as one of the most widely bet teams to make the playoffs among those with plus-money odds.
And given that FanDuel is the only sportsbook differing with an O/U of 7 runs compared to 6.5 across the rest of the market, it seems like only a matter of time before it ticks down a half-run, especially since 57% of the early wagers have backed the Under.
🚑 Pirates vs. Mets injuries
📺 How to watch Pirates vs. Mets
- Date: Thursday, March 26
- First pitch: 1:15 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock
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