Phillies vs. Padres Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Tonight: Machado Sparks Upset in San Diego
Two World Series odds contenders collide on the West Coast tonight, and we explore the betting markets to find value in our Phillies vs. Padres prediction.
Our best sports betting sites list the NL East leaders as significant betting favorites after taking two of three from San Diego at home to start the month. However, we're not as confident as the oddsmakers given the Padres' tremendous home record and Manny Machado's scorching hot form.
The latter is the subject of our Phillies vs. Padres best bets as we offer up two plus-money picks for tonight's marquee matchup. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network) from Petco Park in San Diego.
- Phillies vs. Padres prediction: Padres to win (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐
- Best Phillies vs. Padres player props: Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBIs (+160 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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💰 Phillies vs. Padres prediction & best bet
✅ Phillies vs. Padres prediction: Padres to win (+140 via bet365)
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This matchup marks the 34th time this season that Philadelphia enters a road game as the betting favorite. Meanwhile, it's just the 10th instance in which San Diego is an underdog at Petco Park. Both teams boast winning records in those spots, with the former accumulating a 20-13 record straight-up to the hosts' 5-4 clip.
Philadelphia's -156 moneyline odds at our best sports betting apps imply a 60.94% probability that Ranger Suarez leads the visitors to a third victory in four games against the Padres. Given the Phillies have produced a 51.1% winning percentage on the road this season, we believe FanDuel's odds are too steep.
The Phils have dropped two of their last three on the West Coast, which doesn't fill us with confidence, especially not enough to bet on them at this number. Instead, our Phillies vs. Padres prediction sees value in backing San Diego at the plus-money odds offered bet365 is offering.
The Padres are +140 to record their 30th win of the season at Petco Park. If San Diego can improve upon its 29-17 home record tonight and become the ninth team to reach 30 home victories before the All-Star break, a winning $10 wager would return $14 at our best sportsbooks.
Our Phillies vs. Padres best bet expects the latter to pick up a third outright victory in five attempts as an underdog this month.
💰 Best Phillies vs. Padres player props
✅ Best Phillies vs. Padres player prop: Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBIs (+160 via DraftKings)
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Machado is in scorching form after recording 11 hits across his last 10 starts, including three round-trippers and seven RBIs. His lone multi-RBI game in that span came during a 6-4 win over the Phillies. While Machado has been struggling against Suarez during his career (2-for-11), we're backing San Diego's superstar as a pure value play.
The 33-year-old has gone Over this line at a 50% clip over his last 10 games. Nevertheless, his aforementioned woes against Philadelphia's starter contribute to DraftKings listing the slugger at +160 to clear the line again. Machado's splits are better on the road, but this is the best Phillies vs. Padres player prop pick, and we can't pass up on the price.
🤔 Phillies vs. Padres betting insights
Philadelphia is a public darling for tonight's game. Betting insights provided by BetMGM in the hours leading up to the first pitch show the Phillies receiving 70% of the tickets and 63% of the money for tonight's highly anticipated National League showdown.
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❓MLB betting FAQs
How do betting odds work?
Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.
What is the run line in baseball?
The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.
What does moneyline mean in betting?
The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet—just pick the winner.
💵 Best MLB betting sites
Want to bet on Phillies vs. Padres? Check out the best MLB betting sites and best sportsbook promos for today's MLB games:
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
- Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review
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