Phillies vs. Astros Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Dark Horse Cy Young Candidates in Pitcher's Duel
Two division leaders meet today in an interleague series finale, as the Philadelphia Phillies (47-33) look to avoid a road sweep against the Houston Astros (47-33).
We make our best Phillies vs. Astros prediction, odds, and best bets with first pitch at 2:10 p.m. ET from Daikin Park in Houston.
- Phillies vs. Astros prediction: Astros to win (-142 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under prediction: Under 7 (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Best player prop pick: Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 total bases (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
⚾ Phillies vs. Astros predictions & odds
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✅ Best bet: Under 7 (+100 via BetMGM)
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This is an elite starting pitching matchup of two pitchers that rank in the top 15 in ERA in the league.
Among all Philadelphia starters, the team has its best record when Christopher Sanchez toes the rubber (12-3). He is one of three Phillies starters with a sub-2.00 ERA in June (1.93), and he ranks in the top eight in the majors in ERA, FIP, and HR/9 rate since 2023 (min. 350 IP). Sanchez is also one of five starting pitchers (min. 65 IP) with a ground ball rate greater than 50%, and at least a 25% strikeout rate.
While Sanchez has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 17 of his last 21 regular-season starts, Astros righty Hunter Brown has seven games with at least nine strikeouts this season, the most in the majors. Brown still has the longest scoreless innings streak of any pitcher in the majors this season (28). And over the last two seasons, Brown’s walk rate is the lowest among qualified starters.
The Phillies' bullpen has not performed up to expectations, but I am banking on a long outing from Sanchez to mitigate that weakness. And even if Brown is knocked out of the game early, Houston’s bullpen entered the series ranked in the top four in ERA, FIP, xFIP, and WAR.
The Under has cashed in 16 of Houston’s 23 interleague games this season, including each of the first two games of this series that has seen three total runs scored. It should again be the right side of the total in this series finale, and we are headed to BetMGM to place the wager, as the only one of our best sports betting sites offering plus-money odds
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