⚾ Padres vs. Red Sox Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, April 5

After splitting the first two games of this series, the San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox each look for their first series win of the young season. First pitch for this interleague finale from Fenway Park in Boston is set for 1:35 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited), with the Red Sox listed as anywhere from -148 to -160 home betting favorites.

My Padres vs. Red Sox prediction as part of our MLB picks expects a big Boston win because of the big starting pitching advantage it has with Walker Buehler opposing Ranger Suarez. The Red Sox southpaw is also the subject of my top player prop wager, while I also add a home run play on a Red Sox slugger who is off to a slow start.

⚾ Padres vs. Red Sox picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.57 units

🏆 Who will win Padres vs. Red Sox?

Aside from a 1-6 campaign in 2024 when he was limited to just 16 starts, Walker Buehler has been an over .500 pitcher in every other season. But his poor debut suggests he is in for a rough first season as a Padre, and I expect the Red Sox to rough up their former teammate.

Score prediction: Red Sox 6, Padres 3

💰 Padres vs. Red Sox prediction & best bet

Red Sox -1.5 (+140)

Since finishing fourth in the Cy Young Award voting in 2021, Walker Buehler has had an ERA of 4.93 or worse in two of his last three seasons. The Red Sox gave up on the righty after he pitched to a 1.419 WHIP in 11 starts at Fenway Park, while not missing many bats with a 7.6 K/9 rate.

I have much more confidence in Ranger Suarez in his first home start in Boston. He has limited current Padres hitters to a combined .236/.286/.310 slash line with just two extra-base hits allowed in 72 at-bats.

🔥 Best Padres vs. Red Sox player prop bet

Ranger Suarez Over 15.5 outs recorded (-130)

The Padres figure to put a lot of balls in play against Suarez after having MLB’s lowest strikeout rate (18.5%) against southpaws last season. But that should also mean Suarez will be able to maintain an efficient pitch count, while going much deeper into the game than the 4 1/3 innings he pitched in his debut. 

Suarez was a workhorse for the Phillies early in the year last season, recording 18-plus outs in 10 straight starts after a seven-earned-run clunker in his first outing. He also recorded at least 21 outs seven times in that span.

With San Diego’s offense underperforming to this point, I am backing Suarez to complete six innings at a reasonable 56.52% implied odds.

💣 Padres vs. Red Sox home run prediction

Roman Anthony to hit a home run (+560)

Walker Buehler allowed at least one home run in 11 of his first 14 starts last year, including multiple home runs four times in that span.

All of the three current Red Sox with at least 15 at-bats against Buehler (Willson Contreras, Brenda Rogers, and Trevor Story) have all homered off the right. But I am backing a player who is facing him for the first time to hit just his second home run of the season.

Roman Anthony has a whopping 64.3% hard-hit percentage, up from 60.3% last year, so he is too good a hitter to only have two extra-base hits and a .433 slugging percentage to this point. 

🚀 Padres vs. Red Sox same-game parlay

As far as the game script goes, these three legs of the same-game parlay all play nicely off one another, as a big Red Sox win would be heavily impacted by Ranger Suarez working deep into the game, with Roman Anthony providing run support.

I'm likely sacrificing a lot of value with this parlay since bet365 was the only one of our best sports betting sites with outs recorded props available as of this writing. Thus, I wouldn't put anyone off finding another prop of their liking, or leaving it out altogether, and wagering on this parlay at FanDuel to take advantage of Anthony's monstrous +560 home run odds.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Padres vs. Red Sox: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

If Boston's moneyline odds were to drift anywhere to -140 or shorter, I would then consider the Red Sox moneyline as a play. But given that I expect a huge day for the Red Sox offense against Walker Buehler, laying the 1.5 runs at +140 was more enticing.

I'm also backing Roman Anthony to hit his second home run of the season with 0.25 units of my bankroll. He is in his much more favorable hitting split, as he finished last season with a .903 OPS against right-handed pitching compared to a .770 OPS against lefties.

📊 Live Padres vs. Red Sox odds

Boston's moneyline odds range from -148 at FanDuel to -160 at Caesars and bet365. Just 54% of the moneyline wagers have backed the favorites, so I'd expect this to be a game where more of those wagers are placed on San Diego, while those who think Boston will win will lay the -1.5 runs at plus money odds.

The total is at 9.0 runs across the board, with most top sports betting sites offering -110 juice on both sides. BetMGM has the Under juiced to -115 (carrying a 53.49% implied probability), but the near dead-even betting splits (51/49 in favor of the Over) suggest the line shouldn't change throughout the day.

📈 Padres vs. Red Sox betting trends

🚑 Padres vs. Red Sox injuries

📺 How to watch Padres vs. Red Sox

• Date: Sunday, April 5
• First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Fenway Park (Boston)
• TV: ESPN Unlimitied
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Padres starter: Walker Buehler (0-1, 6.75 ERA)
• Red Sox starter: Ranger Suarez (0-1, 8.31 ERA)