Padres vs. Mets Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 16
Two teams clawing for playoff positions in a National League clash tonight, and we're diving in with my Padres vs. Mets prediction.
The Mets are the narrow -120 betting odds favorite heading into this key battle at Citi Field that begins at 7:10 p.m. ET. Our MLB picks lean toward the Under on 8 runs (-114), while also taking the Under on Padres starter Michael King's strikeout total (+100).
⚾ Padres vs. Mets prediction
MLB expert picks odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Padres (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Padres +1.5 (-204 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-114 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Padres vs. Mets preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬇️ Under 8 (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
King may not pile up strikeouts in this outing, and we explore that more below, but he can still be successful while inducing weak contact. He's been especially lethal when trying to do that against righties, who are posting a mere .198 batting average against him.
He'll do his part to keep the score low, though he may exit earlier than usual since King isn't far removed from an IL stint. Not to worry, as he'll pass the baton to the league's top-ranked bullpen, and it's not close. The Padres' bullpen is posting a 3.13 ERA - far ahead of the Boston Red Sox in second at 3.45.
On the other side, Mets starter Clay Holmes allowed four earned runs across just four innings his last time out. But he gave up two earned runs or fewer in seven of his eight previous starts.
A $10 bet at this -114 price from DraftKings would lead to a $8.77 profit, with an implied probability of 53.27%.
💰 Best Padres vs. Mets player prop bet
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⬇️ Michael King Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Michael King boasts a vast arsenal of effective pitches and he mixes up his approach frequently to keep hitters off balance. He uses his sinker, four-seamer, and changeup all over 20% of the time, with his sweeper just a tick below that at 19.2%, according to Baseball Savant.
But the sinker is the gem of the bunch, and it's what King deploys most often while setting up his other offerings. That's led to great success while contributing to his 2.87 ERA across 12 starts, with opposing batters posting only a .169 batting average against the pitch while slugging .247.
However, the Mets' lineup is far less prone to getting out on the sinker, and racking up strikeouts could be difficult. Three of the team's core regulars in Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Francisco Lindor are at or far above a .300 batting average against the sinker. Nimmo is a tick below at .299, while Alonso boasts a .352 average, and Lindor is way up at .364. Then there's Juan Soto, whose expected slugging against the pitch is .505.
Just as critically, King is also making just his second start since returning from an injury and could still need to build back up, giving him less opportunity to tally strikeouts. He threw a modest 63 pitches in his last outing.
Scramble to make this bet at BetMGM, as it's alone among our best sports betting sites while offering even-money odds; FanDuel and DraftKings are down at -114. A winning $10 bet at BetMGM would lead to a $10 profit, with 50% implied odds.
📊 Padres vs. Mets odds: Sept. 16
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Padres vs. Mets betting odds analysis
Both the moneyline and total have stayed stagnant so far with little movement since the opening lines were posted. The Padres are drawing 58% of the action on the moneyline.
🔢 Padres vs. Mets stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Padres (record) | Statistic (per game) | Mets (record) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Runs | 4.7 |
| 8.4 | Hits | 8.4 |
| .252 | AVG | .249 |
| .388 | SLG | .426 |
| .709 | OPS | .753 |
| 3.64 | ERA | 4.01 |
| 8.9 | K/9 | 8.73 |
| 3.3 | BB/9 | 3.6 |
| 1.1 | HR/9 | 0.9 |
🚑 Padres vs. Mets injuries
📺 Padres vs. Mets game info
- When: Tuesday, Sept. 16
- First pitch: 7: 10 p.m. ET
- Where: Citi Field (New York)
- How to watch: TBS
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❓ Padres vs. Mets FAQs
Who is favored to win Padres vs. Mets?
The Mets are the narrow favorite while getting -120 betting odds. The San Diego Padres are receiving +105 odds as the slight underdog.
What is the run line for Padres vs. Mets?
The Padres are favored on the run line while getting around +160 odds to cover -1.5. Meanwhile, the Mets are receiving -192 odds to cover +1.5.
What is the Over/Under for Padres vs. Mets?
The total for this game is set at 8, with the Over getting -105 odds and the Under at -114.
What are the best bets for Padres vs. Mets?
We're taking the Under on 8 runs (-114), while also rolling with the Under on Padres starter Michael King's strikeout total of 4.5 (+100).
When is the Padres vs. Mets game?
First pitch for the Padres vs. Mets game tonight is set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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