Best Padres vs. Cubs Player Prop Picks for NL Wild Card Series Game 1
The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs square off in an intriguing postseason matchup, and I’m breaking it down with my best Padres vs. Cubs player props for NL Wild Card Series Game 1.
The Cubs are a -115 moneyline favorite on Tuesday, and both clubs are in a similar position in the World Series odds as the postseason gets underway. First pitch is set for 3:08 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago (ABC).
My MLB picks for the series opener include fading Padres right-hander Nick Pivetta and Cubs catcher Carson Kelly.
⚾ Best Padres vs. Cubs player props
MLB player prop bets for NL Wild Card Series Game 1; odds subject to change.
- Nick Pivetta Under 4.5 strikeouts (+120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Carson Kelly to record a hit: No (+110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBI (+139 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
💰 Best Padres vs. Cubs player prop picks
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⬇️ Nick Pivetta Under 4.5 strikeouts (+120) ⭐⭐⭐
Padres manager Mike Shildt has arguably the league’s deepest bullpen, something I expect him to go to early and often now that the calendar has shifted to October.
Nick Pivetta’s numbers were much worse pitching away from the friendly confines of Petco Park in San Diego. He had a 3.55 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 78 2/3 innings on the road, compared to a 2.36 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 103 innings at home. The Cubs hit right-handed pitching well during the regular season and owned the sixth-best team strikeout rate (20.7%).
Our Mike Spector is also targeting a short outing for Pivetta in his best MLB player props today.
A $10 bet on Pivetta’s Under yields a profit of $12 at BetMGM. The +120 odds have an implied probability of 45.45%. I was happy to grab this prop at +120, with Caesars offering it at +115 and FanDuel at +118.
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🥶 Carson Kelly to record a hit: No (+110) ⭐⭐⭐
Carson Kelly struggled to find his swing down the stretch of the regular season, hitting just .174 over his final 23 at-bats and .198 across the last 30 games of the season.
The Cubs catcher did manage two hits against Pivetta earlier this season, but that came early in the campaign when Kelly was red-hot at the plate. Kelly wasn’t the same hitter after the All-Star break, hitting .218 with a .596 OPS in 49 games.
A $10 wager on Kelly to come up empty in the hit department would provide a profit of $11 and has an implied probability of 47.62%.
🔥 Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBI (+139) ⭐⭐⭐
Manny Machado has five hits in 13 career at-bats (.385 average) with three RBI against Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd. He’s entrenched in the No. 3 spot in San Diego’s lineup, which should afford him some opportunities with runners on base if the Padres can create traffic against Boyd.
Machado did major damage against off-speed pitches in September, hitting .400 with a hard-hit rate of nearly 89%. That could be a recipe for success against Boyd’s curveball, which allowed a .286 batting average and .500 slugging percentage during the regular season.
A $10 winning wager on Machado to drive in at least one run would provide a profit of $13.90. The implied probability of the +139 odds is 41.84%.
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📊 Padres vs. Cubs odds
Latest MLB odds updated live in real time.
📺️ How to watch Padres vs. Cubs
When: Tuesday, Sept. 30
First pitch: 3:08 p.m. ET
Where: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
TV: ABC
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