⚾ Orioles Futures Bets 2026: How Pete Alonso Impacts Orioles’ Playoff Odds

The Orioles spent their offseason adding even more mashing to an offense filled with plenty of that when healthy, which leads to lots of intriguing Baltimore Orioles futures bets for 2026.

Pete Alonso is the main ticket, with improved health and bounce-back seasons from core stars anticipated, too. But can the team's once-woeful pitching do its part too?

🪶 Orioles futures bets 2026: Was offseason overhaul enough to contend?

The focus when we look back on the Orioles' offseason is quite rightly on Alonso, and Taylor Ward will provide pop too.

I'll dive in more on Alonso in a moment, but there's a looming question hanging over the team. If the offense does most of the heavy lifting and gets back to mashing, has the pitching improved enough?

Here are the club's key offseason additions, several of which locked in on pitching.

Health was a significant factor for the Orioles' pitching last year too, most importantly when Trevor Rogers' season began late and he was then only able to make 18 starts. But he was brilliant when healthy, and his 1.81 ERA would have led MLB had he logged the innings to qualify.

The issue lied with everyone else beyond him, as the Orioles' pitching was regularly pummeled en route to sitting 26th in ERA and opponents' batting average (4.60 and .259), and 27th in home runs allowed (127).

Now enter Shane Baz, who was acquired in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays. He's battled through significant injuries, including an elbow issue that derailed his 2022 and 2023 seasons and required Tommy John surgery. But he's only a season removed from a 3.06 ERA, and Baz boasts a career 9.5 K/9.

The early returns from him during spring training are promising.

Then there's the veteran savvy of Chris Bassitt, a free-agency addition late in the offseason who's an innings-eating beast. Bassitt has logged 170-plus regular-season innings in four straight years, posting a sub-4.00 ERA in three of those campaigns.

Combine those two with the brilliance from Rogers, and the Orioles make for a highly appealing bet in the MLB playoff odds to return to the postseason after a one-year absence. But doing more than that and winning their first playoff series since 2014 could be a tough ask against more dominant pitching elsewhere in the American League, and within Baltimore's own division.

Orioles best bet: To make the playoffs (-110 via BetMGM)

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🐻‍❄️ How high can Alonso lift up Orioles' offense?

Nothing fixes a spiraling offense quite like adding a homer-clubbing polar bear.

Alonso is a machine in that regard. He's logged three career seasons with 40-plus homers, and the slugger finished just shy of that mark last year at 38. Even a poor year by his standards in 2024 ended with 34 long balls, and he soared onto the scene back in 2019 with 53.

He hasn't wasted any time in spring training either, with two homers across his first 13 at-bats.

Much of the Orioles' offensive struggles last year can be traced back to injuries, with Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser, and Tyler O'Neil all missing significant time, and Gunnar Henderson playing hurt while looking like a shell of himself power-wise.

So part of the Orioles' plan for an offensive rebound is simply getting some positive regression when it comes to injury luck. But getting Alonso to turn the ignition key and truly kickstart the offense again certainly doesn't hurt.

He regularly pulverizes baseballs, with an average exit velocity (93.5 mph) and hard-hat percentage (54.5%) both sitting in the top 4% leaguewide last year, according to Baseball Savant. Alonso will be central to an offensive rebound in Baltimore after the team sat 21st in OPS last season.

What makes the acquisition even better is that Alonso has become a more well-rounded hitter. He produced a career-high .272 batting average last year, and an .871 OPS was Alonso's second-best in the big leagues.

That's key from a betting angle, as some of the best MLB betting sites are unsurprisingly bullish on his power, with FanDuel setting Alonso's home run total at 37.5. He's cleared that mark four times over six non-pandemic-shortened seasons.

But now Alonso heads to Camden Yards, with its deep outfield dimensions that are tough on righties. He'll surely still crush lots of balls over that wall, but relying on him to make quality contact in abundance is the safer play. Camden Yards was the sixth-worst homer ballpark for right-handed batters last year.

Pete Alonso best bet: 150+ hits recorded (-115 via DraftKings)

🚀 Can Gunnar Henderson bounce back?

At first it was a mystery about what happened with Henderson last year.

He still produced a quality season in many ways, setting a career high with 30 steals. But his power plunged, with his OPS falling from .893 to .787, and his homers tumbling from 37 to 17.

Unsurprisingly, he was dealing with a shoulder impingement for much of the season, zapping his power.

“I could never get to the spot that I wanted to get to with my swing, but no excuse," he said in January, via MASN. "Just had to play through it and felt like I still with all those circumstances put up a decent year. Looking forward to being healthy this year and getting back to my normal self.”

His normal self is the guy who was named the AL Rookie of the Year in 2023, and then finished fourth in MVP voting the following season after posting an .893 OPS and ending up ninth MLB-wide in homers. His metrics from those standout campaigns shine too when we pop the hood, particularly a hard-hit rate that sat in the top 5% leaguewide both years.

The dimensions of Camden Yards don't hamper him as a lefty. The opposite is true, as the Orioles' home field was the third-friendliest leaguewide last year to left-handed hitters. Combine that with Henderson's return to health, and there should be plenty of liftoffs coming.

Gunnar Henderson best bet for 2026: Over 26.5 home runs (-113 via FanDuel)

💰 Best Orioles predictions for 2026

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