Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 11

My Mets vs. Phillies prediction expects New York to struggle at the plate and Philadelphia to knock David Peterson out early.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 11, 2025 9:32 AM EDT • 6 minute read

Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 11 — Pictured: New York Mets third baseman Brett Baty (7) reacts after striking out. Photo by John Jones-Imagn Images

The NL East rival New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies meet today for the last time in the regular season as we dive into our Mets vs. Phillies prediction.

Philadelphia has the division on lockdown after opening up a 10-game lead over New York with three straight wins in this series. It is no surprise to see the Phillies as the -142 betting favorite to complete the sweep. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX) from Citizens Bank Park.

I am eyeing New York’s team total Under in this game as part of our MLB picks, while expecting Mets southpaw David Peterson’s struggles to continue given his poor career numbers against the division rival.

Our Gabe Henderson also likes Mets star outfielder Juan Soto to go yard in his best home run predictions today.

⚾ Mets vs. Phillies prediction

MLB expert picks made Thursday; odds subject to change.

Moneyline pick: Phillies (-135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Run line pick: Phillies -1.5 (+150 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-102 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📝 Mets vs. Phillies preview & best bet

Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.

⬇️ Mets team total Under 3.5 (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I was tempted to make the Over 8.5 my Mets vs. Phillies best bet, especially since it has cashed in each of New York’s last seven night games as underdogs. And while Philadelphia should be in for another successful night against Peterson, New York’s struggles at the plate have me hesitant to expect it to do its part in scoring runs.

Phillies southpaw Jesus Luzardo pitched to a 3.12 ERA through six August starts, which followed three consecutive months with an ERA north of 5.00. While his shortest outing in his previous 11 starts was against the Mets (four innings, four earned runs), he also held them scoreless for 6 2/3 innings in his only home start of the year against them amid his early-summer struggles.

New York is just 31-45 since its peak in mid-June. Though it ranks as the NL’s best in wOBA and wRC+ against southpaws in road games since the start of August, I cannot back it confidently after scoring three or fewer runs in six of the last seven games, while averaging just over six hits per game in three of its last four.

The Under of 3.5 runs is the sweet spot at plus-money odds and a 50% implied probability at FanDuel, as the alternate team total of 4.5 runs is juiced to -178 to the Under. At +100 odds, I would match my $10 initial wager in the same amount in net profits.

💰 Best Mets vs. Phillies player prop bet

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬇️ David Peterson Under 15.5 outs recorded (-104) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mets southpaw David Peterson has not won a start against the Phillies since 2021. He has combined to pitch 9 1/3 innings in two starts against Philadelphia this year, and has a troubling 5.27 ERA and 1.473 WHIP in 12 career appearances against Philadelphia.

Current Phillies hitters have combined for a .314/.366/.486 slash line against the lefty. And even though Philadelphia’s lineup is without shortstop Trea Turner and first baseman Alec Bohm, it has been others, such as outfielders Nick Castellanos (.400 batting average, .908 OPS) and Bryce Harper (9-for-22, 1.071 OPS), who have done much of the damage against Peterson.

Peterson has recorded 16 or fewer outs in three of his last five starts, and manager Carlos Mendoza may remove his starter early in this game with one eye to the playoffs in case these teams meet again in the postseason.

Peterson’s implied probability to record 15 or fewer outs is as high as 52.15% given through the -109 odds at the high end of the market. Through the slightly better -104 price at FanDuel, a $10 winning wager would net $9.62 in profits.

📊 Mets vs. Phillies odds: Sept. 11

MLB odds update live in real time.

📈 Mets vs. Phillies betting odds analysis

There has been a bit of reverse line movement in the moneyline odds thus far, as Philadelphia is down from an opening number of -150 moneyline odds to as low as -135, despite receiving 65% of the early wagers. The total has remained firm at 8.5 runs, though there are varying levels of juice, from -102 on the Over to as high as -120.

🔢 Mets vs. Phillies stats

Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.

Mets (76-70)	Statistic (per game)	Phillies (86-60)
4.74	Runs	4.77
8.41	Hits	8.81
.250	AVG	.259
.429	SLG	.426
.758	OPS	.755
3.88	ERA	3.73
8.75	K/9	9.13
3.52	BB/9	2.73
0.90	HR/9	1.06

🚑 Mets vs. Phillies injuries

📺 Mets vs. Phillies game info

When: Thursday, Sept. 11
First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
How to watch: FOX

💡 Expert MLB predictions today

❓ Mets vs. Phillies FAQs

Who is favored to win Mets vs. Phillies?

The Phillies are the -142 betting favorite to beat the Mets at home today.

What is the run line for Mets vs. Phillies?

New York’s +1.5 odds are at -185 on the high end of the market, while Philadelphia’s -1.5 odds range from +136 to +150.

What is the Over/Under for Mets vs. Phillies?

Most sports betting sites are setting the O/U at 8.5 runs, juiced to -120 for the Over and +100 for the Under.

What are the best bets for Mets vs. Phillies?

My Mets vs. Phillies best bets back New York to stay under its projected team total of 3.5 runs, while David Peterson records fewer than 15.5 outs.

When is the Mets vs. Phillies game?

The Mets vs. Phillies first pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET, airing on FOX.

How do baseball odds work?

When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”