Mets vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Soto Set to Tee Off Again

Mets slugger Juan Soto faces an ideal matchup against the Baltimore Orioles' putrid pitching staff tonight.

Sean Tomlinson

Last Updated: July 9, 2025 11:16 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Pictured New York Mets right fielder Juan Soto reacts after hitting a solo home run, and he's featured in our Mets vs. Orioles prediction. Photo by Wendell Cruz / Imagn.

The New York Mets could be beginning to turn their fortunes around, and they'll look to continue that tonight against a wayward Baltimore club as we make our Mets vs. Orioles prediction.

New York remains in World Series odds contention while tied with the Philadelphia Phillies atop the NL East. Meanwhile, Baltimore has been playing better, but the Orioles are still 10 games below .500, and the Orioles will likely be surprise sellers at the trade deadline.

Let's dive into our Mets vs. Orioles best bets, with first pitch slated for 7:05 p.m. ET from Orioles Park at Camden Yards (ESPN).

Mets vs. Orioles prediction: Mets -1.5 (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best Mets vs. Orioles player props: Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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✅ Mets vs. Orioles prediction: Mets -1.5 (+105 via BetMGM)

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Yes, the Orioles just swept the Atlanta Braves, and they're not far removed from producing an encouraging June while posting a 16-11 record as we make our Mets vs. Orioles prediction.

But that only brought them up a few feet from the deep, dark hole they dug for themselves. This is still a team with the league's 27th-ranked pitching staff that's sporting an ERA of 4.94, and the 25th-ranked bullpen with its 4.55 ERA. On the other side, an offense that boasts plenty of talent sits 22nd in scoring and 17th in OPS.

The first game of this series may have been close as we look to make our Mets vs. Orioles best bet, with New York winning 7-6 in extra innings. But there's a recipe for a quick course correction tonight, especially with Tomoyuki Sugano starting for Baltimore, as the rookie is tied for sixth in home runs allowed (19).

💰 Best Mets vs. Orioles player props

✅ Best Mets vs. Orioles player prop: Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (-110 via BetMGM)

Soto, an MLB MVP odds long shot, just went 3-for-5 against the Orioles' woeful pitching staff while driving in what would stand as the game-winning run last night. That's already his second three-hit game in July, and it comes on the heels of a volcanic June in which he clubbed 11 home runs with a .322 batting average and 1.196 OPS.

He should thoroughly enjoy spending a chunk of his evening teeing off against Sugano and cashing one of our best Mets vs. Orioles player props. Sugano's expected slugging allowed of .546 is in the bottom 2% of MLB. His actual slugging given up is .469, so there's lots of room to tumble further and take an unenjoyable ride on the regression train.

Soto liberally smacks anything and everything, but it will not surprise you to learn he especially likes to torch heaters. He's slugging a whopping .600 when given a fastball, which is Sugano's second-most used pitch with a .546 slugging against.

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Written by:
Sean Tomlinson

Sean Tomlinson has been in the sports media wilderness since 2009, and he joined Sportsbook Review in 2021. His work has been referenced in The New York Times and Forbes. He's also made appearances on The Fan 590 and TSN 1050. Sean is a regular bettor who places bets daily while using a handful of books. Most frequently, he uses FanDuel and bet365 due to the quality experience on those apps. While he'll often take an analytical approach, Sean enjoys the fun, recreational side of betting too, and embraces alternative markets on events like the Westminster Dog Show or Eurovision, or the many novelty props tied annually to the Super Bowl, for example. Beyond sports, Sean is also interested in the betting markets tied to politics, and especially those connected to American elections. He sees betting as a way to explore and engage in a deeper way, and takes that same view to his work. He plays poker periodically too, and is an avid fantasy sports player. Sean also previously spent time with Bleacher Report and theScore, all after earning his media studies degree from the University of Guelph-Humber.