⚾ Mets vs. Cardinals Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, April 1

Both the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals will have their Opening Day starting pitchers on the mound in this early afternoon contest as Freddy Peralta takes the bump opposite Matthew Liberatore. After each team took two out of three games in their opening series, this sets up as another rubber match after they split the first two of this series. First pitch from Busch Stadium in St. Louis is set for 1:15 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited), with the Mets listed as -165 betting favorites.

My Mets vs. Cardinals prediction as part of our MLB picks prefers the Over as my top wager instead of backing New York's steep moneyline odds, with Bo Bichette and Juan Soto doing their part to help ensure that is the right side of the total.

⚾ Mets vs. Cardinals picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 3.96 units

🏆 Who will win Mets vs. Cardinals?

Matthew Liberatore may have been St. Louis’ Opening Day starter, but the fact remains that he has just a 16-24 career record with a 4.59 ERA. That won’t cut it against the Mets with Freddy Peralta on the mound after he finished fifth in the Cy Young Award voting last year.

Score prediction: Mets 6, Cardinals 3

💰 Mets vs. Cardinals prediction & best bet

Over 7.5 (-118)

Peralta’s 4.67 career ERA against the Cardinals is his second-worst against any team (min. four starts). While he went a combined 19-9 against the rest of the NL Central as a Brewer, he is just 5-6 against St. Louis.

The Mets ranked in the top half of the league in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and strikeout rate against southpaws last year, while walking at the eighth-highest rate. 

No MLB team had more than the 51 combined runs that St. Louis had in its first four games, and that has me backing the Over with confidence in this afternoon matinee.

🔥 Best Mets vs. Cardinals player prop bet

Bo Bichette Over 0.5 RBIs (+161)

Bo Bichette heard boos in his first Citi Field homestand after going just 1-for-14 with eight strikeouts. But after failing to record a single hit in his first seven at-bats with runners in scoring position, he got off the schneid in Monday’s series opener against St. Louis with a fifth-inning RBI single, and his two RBIs overall should have him playing much more comfortably on the road.

Bichette bats in a prime RBI spot in the Mets lineup behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. Soto has reached base safely in all 40 career games against St. Louis, so he should again provide plenty of base traffic for when Bichette bats. 

These are great RBI odds for a player who has a 128 wRC+ since the start of last season through Monday.

💣 Mets vs. Cardinals home run prediction

Juan Soto to hit a home run (+600)

Soto does not yet have a home run this season, but that should change soon for the slugger who is MLB’s hard-hit percentage per swing leader since the start of the 2022 season (min. 2,250 swings) at 22.8%.

Liberatore has served up home runs to Lindor and Mark Vientos in his career, but Soto has tagged him for three hits in five at-bats. 

The southpaw allowed a home run in his first start, and his 45% fly ball rate from that outing should get him in even more trouble when facing Soto. The lefty slugger has a hard-hit rate of 55.3% or better in each of the last three seasons, and an xSLG of .608 or better in the last two.

🚀 Mets vs. Cardinals same-game parlay

Backing Bichette to drive in at least one run along with the full game Over pair nicely together as each helps each other's cause. Although I will be betting it individually, I decided not to make Juan Soto's home run odds a third leg of this parlay. Since he bats directly in front of Bichette, Soto clearing the bases in an at-bat would diminish Bichette's chances of driving in a run greatly, and we're still getting a great +382 return on a two-leg parlay.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Mets vs. Cardinals: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Juan Soto's home run odds are as low as +400 at Caesars (carrying a 20% implied probability), and that is exactly where I would draw the line between this being a wager or a pass. By making this wager at bet365, I can ease back and lay just 0.25 units for Soto to hit a bomb and still return a great payout, while I would've bet upwards of a half-unit at shorter odds.

And even though I'm paying up slightly for the -118 juice on the total at DraftKings, it is worth it given the big half-run difference between an O/U of 7.5 and 8.0 runs.

📊 Live Mets vs. Cardinals odds

The Mets are listed as anywhere from -164 to -171 moneyline favorites across the best sports betting sites. But bettors don't seem enamored with that price, as New York has attracted just 57% of the moneyline bets. Perhaps those who like the Mets are more comfortable laying the -1.5 runs, with the best value being FanDuel's +102 odds.

FanDuel and DraftKings are the only sites currently offering a 7.5-run total. But with the Over of 8.0 at plus-money odds (+100) at Caesars and bet365, that suggests they could align with the rest of the market at 7.5 before first pitch.

📈 Mets vs. Cardinals betting trends

🚑 Mets vs. Cardinals injuries

📺 How to watch Mets vs. Cardinals

• Date: Wednesday, April 1
• First pitch: 1:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Mo.)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Mets starter: Freddy Peralta (1-0, 7.20 ERA)
• Cardinals starter: Matthew Liberatore (0-0, 1.80 ERA)