Mets vs. Braves Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Fade New York Rookie in First Road Start

How will Mets rookie pitcher Nolan McLean follow up his dream debut?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 22, 2025 9:56 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Mets vs. Braves Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Friday, Aug. 22 — Pictured: New York Mets pitcher Nolan McLean (26) had a great MLB debut, but my Mets vs. Braves prediction expects him to have a tougher outing on Friday. Photo by John Jones via Imagn Images.

NL East rivals square off this weekend, and my Mets vs. Braves prediction advises you to fade New York against a red-hot Atlanta squad.

Mets rookie starting pitcher Nolan McLean could not have asked for a better MLB debut in his last start, and now he leads the team in his first road start in a series opener against the Braves. Oddsmakers at our top sports betting sites have made this game a virtual pick’em with -110 moneyline odds on each side. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (Apple TV+).

Despite me expecting Atlanta to win the game, my Mets vs. Braves best bets backs a New York slugger amid one of his best stretches of the season.

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💰 Mets vs. Braves prediction & best bet

✅ Mets vs. Braves prediction: Braves to win (-104 via FanDuel)

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New York has to be disappointed with how its series against the Washington Nationals ended, losing back-to-back games to its division rival for just the third time since the start of the 2023 season.

Atlanta is 11-3 in its last 14 games, the best record in the majors in that span. It has won each of its last four series, which includes taking two of three in New York, and its momentum is why I am backing it to win this series opener with my Mets vs. Braves prediction.

Atlanta’s success of late is heavily predicated on dominant pitching, as it has held opponents to one or fewer runs in five of its last 11 wins.

McLean was brilliant in his MLB debut for New York, throwing 5 1/3 scoreless innings in a win against the Seattle Mariners. But Seattle failed to take advantage of the four walks McLean issued, and a Braves lineup that scored 20 runs in three games in the last series between these teams won’t be as forgiving.

Atlanta is my Mets vs. Braves best bet, as the Braves had the benefit of a day off yesterday and have won three of their four games when at a rest advantage over their opponents. Of all the top sports betting apps, FanDuel is the only one listing the Braves as an underdog as of early Friday morning.

📊 Live Mets vs. Braves odds: Friday, 7:15 p.m. ET

💰 Best Mets vs. Braves player prop

✅ Best Mets vs. Braves player prop: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 total bases (+125 via bet365)

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Lindor had a six-game streak with at least one extra-base hit snapped in Wednesday’s loss to the Washington Nationals. But he promptly followed that up with another home run and six more total bases yesterday, and I am backing him to carry the weight at the top of New York’s lineup with my best Mets vs. Braves player prop.

Lindor is the only batter in the Mets' lineup with a home run in his career against Braves southpaw Joey Wentz. He is in his worse hitting split with an OPS 188 points lower against left-handed pitchers than righties, but his 1.426 OPS over the last seven days has me convinced he will do damage against whoever is toeing the rubber.

The +125 odds at bet365 trump the +100 odds at the low end of the market, and a $10 winning wager would net $12.50 in profits.

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❓MLB betting FAQs

Who is the favorite to win Mets vs. Braves?

The Braves are slightly favored vs. the Mets at -104 odds, giving Atlanta an implied 50.98% win probability, according to our odds converter.

How do betting odds work?

Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.

What is the run line in baseball?

The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.

What does moneyline mean in betting?

The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet - just pick the winner.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”