⚾ Italy vs. Puerto Rico Predictions: Today's WBC 2026 Betting Picks & Odds

Short of Francisco Lindor showing up on the bench, I have no idea why Puerto Rico is trading as a betting favorite for today's WBC showdown with Italy. My Italy vs. Puerto Rico prediction breaks down why that's wrong while getting us set up to punish the sportsbooks. First pitch is set for 3 p.m. ET, airing on FS1.

Veteran Seth Lugo will take the mound for Puerto Rico, while Samuel Aldegheri starts for the Italians. The value has been constantly moving away from Italy since opening, but there's still value to be found in this game. 

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⚾ Italy vs. Puerto Rico WBC predictions: Today, 3 p.m. ET

Here are our World Baseball Classic picks for today's Italy vs. Puerto Rico matchup; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.

Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 5.12 units

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💰 Italy vs. Puerto Rico best bet

Italy moneyline (-105)

Let's break this down quickly. Italy went perfect in pool play, beating USA before destroying Mexico, a team that's infinitely more talented than Puerto Rico. It has since remained in Houston, resting, waiting for its opponent to arrive.

That opponent played four true home games in pool play and lost its last one to Canada with a chance to clinch Pool A. It's since traveled from San Juan to Houston, where it will be greeted by the team with the most momentum in the entire tournament.

These odds are just wrong. Bet them accordingly.

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🔥 Best Italy vs. Puerto Rico player prop

Vinnie Pasquantino 2+ hits (+240)

The Pasquatch went absolutely nuclear against Mexico, launching three homers during the 9-1 win. On Saturday, he faces his Kansas City Royals teammate Seth Lugo, who allowed an abysmal .272 average against lefties last season.

Additionally, for his part, Pasquantino crushed right-handers, and I think he rides his wave of momentum from the final game of pool play directly into this showdown. I also like his home run odds, and if Dominic Canzone sits like he did against Mexico, I'd fire up Vinnie at +500.

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💣 Italy vs. Puerto Rico home run prediction

Dominic Canzone home run (+500)

I bet on Canzone to hit a homer against Mexico but he sat. All of the reasons I gave there apply to this game, with the added fact that Lugo gave up homers for fun last season.

Canzone is hitting just .154 during the tournament, but one of those two hits was a homer.

I featured Canzone as one of my 10 breakout MLB players to watch this season (along with Pasquantino, looks like I am the OG Italy believer), and he has a chance to start that breakout early. Canzone crushes the ball, and he has six hard-hit balls in the tournament thus far.

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🚀 Italy vs. Puerto Rico same-game parlay

I'm parlaying the Italy moneyline with the Over and a couple of player props for our Italy vs. Puerto Rico SGP at DraftKings. The odds are relatively long, so be sure to limit your wager size.  

💵 Best Italy vs. Puerto Rico parlay bet

• Italy ML (-105)
• Over 8.5 (-110)
• Vinnie Pasquantino 1+ hit (-240)
• Jakob Marsee 1+ hit (-200)

Best odds: +470 via DraftKings (0.25u -> 1.43u)

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💵 My betting record for the WBC

All baseball picks have been tracked since the start of the World Baseball Classic on March 4

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⚖️ How I'm betting Italy vs. Puerto Rico

I got a bit looser with my bankroll management for South Korea-Dominican Republic and USA-Canada, but I'm tightening things back up here. I like Italy to win and I like the Over, but I'm a little unsure about everything else.

Therefore, I'd bet this game essentially as I laid it out up top, or perhaps choose between the moneyline or Over on the total if I wanted to be slightly more conservative. When it comes to the player props, I'm definitely not going over one unit combined.

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📊 Italy vs. Puerto Rico odds & analysis

Here are the World Baseball Classic odds for Italy vs. Puerto Rico on Saturday via DraftKings:

The odds at DraftKings for Puerto Rico to win outright are -120, so you can definitely bet either side of the moneyline. At DraftKings, bettors siding more with the underdogs in what's widely expected to be a higher-scoring game. We're seeing 58% of the moneyline bets being placed on the underdogs, 85% of the bets for the total on the Over, and 60% of the run line bets on Italy to cover +1.5. As of 3 p.m. ET, bettors are a bit split.

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🆚 Italy vs. Puerto Rico starting pitchers & projected lineups

Here are the projected starting pitchers and lineups for Saturday's Italy vs. Puerto Rico matchup:

Key players to watch

Italy - Jon Berti: Pasquantino got all the shine, but Berti was lowkey a monster against Mexico, too.  And this is a guy who stole 41 bases once upon a time. He could torment Puerto Rico on the basepaths in this one.

Puerto Rico - Heliot Ramos: Ramos has been brutal during the WBC, but he should be one of, if not the best player for this team. If he goes, so, too, could Puerto Rico.

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🏆 WBC MVP betting insights

This game features one of the rising WBC MVP odds contenders in Pasquantino. He's among the top movers up the board, via BetMGM as of yesterday. Here's some of the notable movement lately.

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📺 How to watch Italy vs. Puerto Rico

• When: Saturday, March 14
• First pitch: 3 p.m. ET
• Where: Daikin Park (Houston, Texas)
• TV: FS1
• Streaming: Fubo

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❓ Italy vs. Puerto Rico World Baseball Classic FAQ

Here's what people are asking about Italy vs. Puerto Rico on Saturday:

Who is the favorite in Italy vs. Puerto Rico?

Puerto Rico is the favorite to win, with odds hovering around -120.

What time is the Italy vs. Puerto Rico WBC game?

This game will start at 3 p.m. ET.

Who are the starting pitchers for Italy vs. Puerto Rico?

Italy will send Samuel Aldegheri to the mound, while Puerto Rico will go with Seth Lugo.

Where can I watch the Italy vs. Puerto Rico WBC game?

You can watch this game on FS1 or stream it on Fubo.

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