MLB Home Run Leader Odds 2022: Favorites, Value Plays, and Longshots

Most of the time, the major league home run leader is not the one that is favored at the start of the season. 162 games are a long haul and when players get injured for any significant period of time, it can knock them out of the home run chase, replaced by those that have managed to stay on the field.

Since Sports Odds History started tracking these odds in 2009, Giancarlo Stanton in 2017 is the only player that was favored at the beginning of the season that ultimately went on to hit the most home runs. That seems like bad news for Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is the preseason favorite.

Playing time is also a big factor. That means staying healthy and playing nearly every day. Some good fortune is required, too. While more major league players are swinging with an eye towards putting the ball in the air, there is still a matter of which flyballs sail out of the yard and which ones fall into the outfielder’s glove. From year to year, that home run-flyball ratio can shift and if a player is going to hit the most home runs in Major League Baseball, he could use some favorable flyball luck.

Another factor to consider is whether a player’s home ballpark is conducive to hitting home runs. According to FantasyPros, the Cincinnati Reds, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Colorado Rockies, and Los Angeles Angels have home parks that enhance home run totals. The Philadelphia Phillies, Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, and Houston Astros round out the Top 10.

Here is a look at the MLB Home Run Leader favorites, some value plays, and longshots worth considering, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook. It is interesting to note that all the best odds currently are on Caesars.

https://twitter.com/CaesarsSports/status/1507037475176427520?s=20&t=l_8TaWHRzUCQBRri7Puyaw

MLB Home Run Leader Odds

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SEE ALSO: World Series Odds and Picks

MLB Home Run Leader 2022 Favorites

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1000 via Caesars Sportsbook)

The 23-year-old mashed 48 home runs for the Blue Jays last season, fulfilling a lot of his anticipated promise during what was a breakthrough campaign.

FanGraphs models tend to agree that Guerrero Jr. is the most likely player to lead the major leagues in home runs in 2022. ZiPs and Steamer projections give Guerrero Jr. 43 and 47 home runs respectively to lead MLB. ATC projections have Vladdy leading MLB with 41 home runs and THE BAT X projections have Guerrero Jr. leading MLB with 42 home runs.  FanGraphs’ depth chart projections give Guerrero Jr. 45 home runs to lead MLB.  

His home run/flyball (HR/FB) rate last season was 26.5%, which is the highest of his career. But he has played three seasons, so it only stands out that his rate has steadily improved since his rookie season.

Pete Alonso (+1200 via Caesars)

While Guerrero Jr.’s HR/FB rate has been increasing, Alonso’s has decreased since his monster rookie season when he hit 53 home runs in 2019. His HR/FB rate was 19.7% last season, which is lower than his career mark of 30.6%. Nevertheless, Alonso’s 162-game average through three major league seasons is 46 home runs, so he is a legit candidate.

Aaron Judge (+1400 via Caesars)

Since bursting onto the scene with 52 home runs to win the American League Rookie of the Year Award in 2017, Judge has had a hard time staying on the field. He was relatively healthy in 2021 and slugged 39 home runs in 148 games but that followed three injury-plagued seasons. He also faces the prospect of missing games in Toronto unless the rules change for players that are not vaccinated against COVID-19. The injury factor alone makes Judge a risky play, even if the 6-foot-7, 280-pound outfielder has as much raw power as anyone.

Shohei Ohtani (+1600 via Caesars)

A year ago, Ohtani had hit 47 home runs in 254 games through three Major League seasons, hardly a contender to hit the most home runs in a season. But after he mashed 46 home runs in his 2021 AL MVP campaign, Ohtani is now a prime candidate. His HR/FB rate last season was a career-high 32.9% and that is a little high, but his career mark is 29.4%, so Ohtani has established that he knows how to make the most of his swings.

Value Opportunities

Yordan Alvarez (+2500 via Caesars)

Health has been an issue for the Astros DH, as he missed most of the 2020 season. However, he did slug 33 home runs in 144 games last season and had 27 homers in just 87 games as a rookie in 2019. Last season’s HR/FB rate was 21.4%, which is below Alvarez’s career mark of 25.6%. ZiPS projections have Alvarez with 39 home runs, the second-highest total in MLB, so to get him at this price feels like a relative discount.

Ronald Acuna Jr. (+3000 via Caesars)

Returning from a torn ACL suffered last season, the Braves outfielder was going to be back in the lineup in May but early indications from the Braves are that Acuna Jr. will start as the designated hitter by April 21, which means he would miss just the first two weeks of the season. The 24-year-old has hit 105 home runs in 395 career games through his first four MLB seasons, a 162-game average of 43 homers. If he is back and ready to go a couple of weeks into the season, Acuna Jr. offers great value at this price.

Longshots

Rhys Hoskins (+7500 via Caesars)

Philadelphia’s power-hitting first baseman hit 27 home runs in 107 games last season, with an HR/FB rate of 18.8%. Hoskins consistently has a flyball rate of 50% or more over the last four seasons. That means if his HR/FB rate spikes, so too will his home run total. At these long odds for the MLB Home Run leader, Hoskins is worth a shot.

Nelson Cruz (+10000 via Caesars)

Admittedly, this one is a hope and a prayer, but the odds indicate as much. Cruz is 41 years old, and it seems unlikely that he would have the most home runs in Major League Baseball. But he has hit 292 home runs since 2014, far and away the most in MLB, 33 more than runner-up Nolan Arenado and 44 more than Mike Trout. Cruz’s HR/FB rate dipped to 20.9% last season, below his career average and his lowest mark since 2014, on his way to 32 home runs in 140 games. He hit 41 home runs in 2019 and added 16 home runs in 53 games during the shortened 2020 season. It’s possible that, even at his advanced age, Cruz could contend for the home run title.

MLB Home Run Leader History

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In the past 13 seasons, most home run leaders are not favored at the start of the season so there is plenty of incentive to look beyond the favorite. Naturally, with so many viable options, there will be better value down the board.

At the same time, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is favored for legitimate reasons. He is an elite talent who is just scratching the surface of his potential and he tied for the MLB lead in home runs last season.

Nelson Cruz had 40 home runs in 2014 and was the last player to lead MLB in home runs with fewer than 45, not including the shortened 2020 season when Luke Voit’s 22 home runs would equate to a pro-rated 59 homers in 162 games.

Recommendation

Guerrero Jr. is a deserving favorite and his +1000 price at Caesars is still fair value. However, this market demands looking for options further down the board, players with a chance to deliver a bigger payout. Ronald Acuna Jr. (+3000 at Caesars) and Rhys Hoskins (+7500 at Caesars) are two sluggers that have the upside to lead MLB in home runs during the 2022 season.

Where to Bet on the MLB Home Run Leader

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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