⚾ Guardians vs. Dodgers Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (April 1)

The Cleveland Guardians (3-3) handed the Los Angeles Dodgers (4-1) their first loss of the season earlier this week, but the latest Guardians vs. Dodgers win probability expects the defending champions to deal the final blow when these teams meet today (8:20 p.m. ET) to wrap up a three-game series at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.

Cleveland will trot out former top prospect Gavin Williams (0-1, 5.40 ERA) against the Dodgers' death star lineup, while Los Angeles ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1-0, 3.00 ERA) seeks his sixth consecutive win as a starter dating back to the postseason. His presence on the mound is a key reason why prediction market apps expect the Dodgers to win today - here's everything to know about this MLB matchup.

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🏆 Who will win Guardians vs. Dodgers today? Live MLB win probability

While the prediction markets have clearly favored Los Angeles all week, the projected win probability for each team was a shade closer when this market first opened on Sunday.

Since then, we've seen a steady march in the Dodgers' favor with nearly $125,000 in trading volume on the winner of this game as of late afternoon before first pitch tonight. Los Angeles features the better lineup - especially after adding prized free agent Kyle Tucker in the offseason - though Yamamoto could drive this market all on his own.

The outlook is less rosy for the Guardians behind Williams, who was tagged for three runs in five innings while landing just 49 of his 89 pitches for strikes. He blamed his wild start on mechanical issues after the game, though it's tough to ask for a worse follow-up outing to work out the kinks than against the best lineup in baseball.

My prediction: Dodgers win. All signs point to another Los Angeles win en route to a 5-1 start, especially with Yamamoto looking sharp on the mound in his season debut. Our MLB expert Mike Spector broke down the rest of today's slate with his best MLB player props today for the full baseball schedule tonight.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Guardians vs. Dodgers today?

Whenever Shohei Ohtani takes the field, home runs often follow. That's the logic in the early home run prediction market with the four-time MVP winner priced featuring a roughly 30% chance to hit his first home run of the season tonight with nearly $15,000 in total trading volume in this market.

Five other Dodgers hitters - Will Smith (2), Mookie Betts (1), Max Muncy (1), Andy Pages (1), and Alex Freeland (1) - have cleared the fence so far this season, while Guardians rookie Chase DeLauter has incredibly hit all four of his team's home runs through his first six games in the majors. He'll sit out today's game as he recovers from a foot injury.

None of the current Guardians hitters have ever taken Yamamoto deep, while Ohtani is the only player to have gotten the best of Williams in the home run department.

My prediction: Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run. He's been cold to start the year, but Ohtani belted at least one homer in 51 of 158 games last year (32.3%), including on the first pitch against Williams in their only matchup all season. See all of our best home run predictions today from our MLB expert Sean Tomlinson.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Guardians vs. Dodgers today?

While the market is still expecting no runs to be scored in the first inning, color me skeptical that Williams makes it out alive against Ohtani and the rest of the Dodgers' seemingly inevitable order.

The Guardians starter was a relatively shaky first-inning pitcher last year, surrendering a 3.77 ERA with a below-average OPS allowed (.770) and eight HRs allowed in 129 plate appearances in the first frame. Yamamoto was sharp from the jump last year, though his 3.03 ERA in the first inning was his third-worst of any frame (4.66 ERA in 3rd, 13.50 ERA in 9th).

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. The Dodgers are yet to score a run in the first inning through five games, but I expect that to end today with Williams in a rut.

📊 Guardians vs. Dodgers win expectancy today

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Guardians vs. Dodgers today

• Date: Wednesday, April 1
• First pitch: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles)
• TV: CLEG
• Guardians starter: Gavin Williams (0-1, 5.40 ERA)
• Dodgers starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1-0, 3.00 ERA)