⚾ Giants vs. Orioles Win Probability: Who Will Win Tonight’s MLB Game? (April 10)

The Giants vs. Orioles win probability from the prediction market apps shows a narrow advantage for the home side, largely due to a San Francisco offense that hasn't fully awoken from its offseason slumber just yet.

The Giants did just beat the Philadelphia Phillies twice in impressive fashion, but overall their offensive production has landed with a thud so far this season. Combine that with facing the strikeout maestro that is Shane Baz, and we get the slowly growing probability gap the prediction market is showing.

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🏆 Who will win Giants vs. Orioles? Live MLB win probability

There's been oscillating movement in this market. But now positions seem to be settling, though the Orioles are getting only a marginally better win probability.

The Giants began with a 54% probability to win before going way down to 45%, then back to as high as 52%. But with some meandering, they've mostly been in the 45% neighborhood since early yesterday morning.

Similarly, the Orioles were up to 55% to start and down to 48%. They've peaked at 55% again twice, but have now been hovering around 53%.

Baltimore getting the slight upper hand is no doubt tied to the starting pitching and Baz, combined with the general ineptitude of San Francisco's offense. We've seen Baz rack up punchouts whenever he's been healthy for any stretch, and the righty finished with a K/9 of 9.5 last year. He'll face a Giants lineup with the fourth-worst team OPS (.618).

The Giants did just snap out of their slumber briefly with two straight shutout wins over the Phillies. But prior to that they averaged just 2.8 runs per contest while dropping five of six games.

My prediction: Orioles win. It won't take much from Baz to suppress the Giants' offense, and then he'll hand the ball to a Baltimore bullpen tied for eighth in reliever strikeouts thus far.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Giants vs. Orioles?

Rafael Devers is the lone member of the Giants' lineup showing some signs of life, and he's getting the highest probability to go deep at 19%. But the Orioles' power bats follow closely behind amid just over $4,500 in trading volume, with Pete Alonso at 17% and Gunnar Henderson at 14%.

Everyone will get to tee off at a ballpark that was the league's six-most homer-friendly venue last year, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors. And the Orioles' sluggers are best positioned to take advantage.

Baz allowed 26 homers last season, which sat among the bottom 15 leaguewide. However, the Giants' offense lacks punch beyond Devers. They sit dead last in homers with only five across 13 games, which comes after finishing 19th last season.

Meanwhile, a sinker Giants starter Landen Roupp uses heavily came with a 45.5% hard-hit rate last year.

My prediction: Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run. Henderson boasts a barrel rate in the 89th percentile early this season, and he fared well against sinkers last year with a .307 batting average. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today from our MLB expert Andrew Brennan.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Giants vs. Orioles?

There's been a steady decline in this market ever since it opened, with a swift fall from 54% to 45%.

It's difficult to go against that movement ahead of a game featuring two of MLB's worst offenses early, with the Orioles sitting 21st in run production, and the Giants even worse while down in 27th.

That's a significant reason why both teams are dreadful when it comes to being involved in game featuring a first-inning run. The Orioles hold MLB's second-worst YRFI record at 2-10, while the Giants aren't much better at 5-8 and tied for 20th.

Baz is at his sharpest while piling up strikeouts, and we saw him do that during his last outing against the Pittsburgh Pirates while not giving up his only earned run allowed until the fourth inning. Meanwhile, Roupp was rocked his last time out while coughing up five earned runs. But none came in the first inning either then or in his opening start to the campaign, and he's tallied seven strikeouts in both outings.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. The NRFI has hit in three straight Orioles games, and they've put up a 5-1 NRFI record at home. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.  

📊 Giants vs. Orioles win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Giants vs. Orioles

• Date: Friday, April 10
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Camden Yards (Baltimore)
• TV: Apple TV
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Giants starter: Landen Roupp (1-1, 4.22 ERA)
• Orioles starter: Shane Baz (0-0, 4.09 ERA)