Dodgers vs. Rockies MLB Picks: Is Kershaw Due for a Rough Night at Coors Field?
Clayton Kershaw has struggled at Coors Field. Will he be able to shake off that history Saturday night against the Rockies? Let's dive into the matchup with our Dodgers-Rockies picks.
There would seem to be an obvious favorite in a pitching matchup between lefties Clayton Kershaw and Kyle Freeland on the surface. But could Kershaw's underlying history at Coors Field present a problem for Los Angeles on Saturday?
Here are my Dodgers-Rockies picks and predictions for Saturday’s MLB game (odds via DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Dodgers vs. Rockies Game Info
Date: Saturday, July 30, 8:10 p.m. ETTV: AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain, MLB TVLocation: Coors Field, Denver, COWeather: 94 degrees, Sunny, 0% Precipitation, 4-mph winds
Dodgers vs. Rockies Odds Analysis
The Rockies opened as +204 favorites before dipping slightly to +195 through DraftKings. The Dodgers are receiving 74% of the public money at a hefty -230.
The total opened at 11.5 runs and has remained there. It's costing extra juice to bet the Under, which is getting 64% of the money wagered. Dodgers games are 39-52-8 to the Over, with Rockies games at 48-47-6.
Dodgers vs. Rockies Projected Pitchers
Clayton Kershaw (7-2, 2.49 ERA, 0.947 WHIP) vs. Kyle Freeland (5-7, 4.64 ERA, 1.362 WHIP)
The NL's starter for the All-Star Game is aging like a fine wine, but there’s reason to question him heading into Saturday. Several Rockies hitters have tagged Kershaw in the past, particularly at this ballpark.
Freeland has been shaky at home in 2022, allowing a 5.66 ERA at Coors Field compared to 3.57 on the road. He’s coming off a strong outing in Milwaukee, but Freeland hasn’t been able to replicate that at home.
https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1551314011802714118
Dodgers vs. Rockies Picks
Moneyline: Rockies (+195 via DraftKings)???Spread: Rockies +1.5 (+130 via DraftKings)????Over/Under: Over 11.5 (+100 via DraftKings, FanDuel)????Player prop: Charlie Blackmon: Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120 via DraftKings, FanDuel)????
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Dodgers vs. Rockies ML Pick
Rockies (+195)
Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant, Elias Diaz, Randal Grichuk, and Garrett Hampson have all walloped Kershaw during their careers, each recording an OPS over .880. It’s not just the present group of Rockies that gives Kershaw fits. Opponents have registered a .752 OPS at Coors Field, his worst among active ballparks.
With that in mind, Kershaw could produce one of his more underwhelming performances of the season on Saturday night.
Dodgers vs. Rockies Spread Pick
Rockies +1.5 (+130)
Even when it’s Dodgers-Rockies in 2022, offering plus-money odds on a home team on the plus-side of the run line is a dangerous game, Mr. Bookmaker.
The Rockies are last in the NL West, but they've posted a 29-26 record at home in 2022, and they’re 23-11 on the run line as home underdogs. This play feels counter to common beliefs about baseball in 2022, but the data backs it up.
Dodgers vs. Rockies O/U Pick
Over 11.5 (+100)
Freeland has allowed four-plus earned runs in eight of his 19 starts. He’s given up a .891 OPS at Coors Field in 2022, compared to just .649 on the road.
Additionally, the Dodgers have battered Freeland. He's allowed 12 earned runs over 15.1 innings with an opposing OPS of .803 against Los Angeles in 2022.
Given Kershaw’s similar struggles against several Rockies mainstays, a classic Coors shootout could be in store for Saturday night. The Rockies winning that type of affair would cover two of our plays.
Dodgers vs. Rockies Player Prop
Blackmon Over 1.5 total bases (-120)
Blackmon and Kershaw have logged a lengthy history against one another, with the outfielder enjoying the edge. His lifetime slash line against Kershaw is .304/.351/.551, and he's hit four home runs over 69 at-bats. It's a peculiar situation because the left-on-left matchup typically favors the pitcher.
Apparently, breaking balls are easier to track at altitude. Look for Blackmon to hit one in the gap or take Kershaw deep on Saturday.
https://twitter.com/RoxGifsVids/status/1552374944306270208
Where to Bet on Dodgers-Rockies Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
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Dodgers-Rockies picks from 7/30/2022 at 2:03 p.m. ET.
