⚾ Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Win Probability: Who Will Win Tonight’s MLB Game? (April 10)

The Diamondbacks vs. Phillies win probability reflects what seems to be a widespread belief that a slumbering Philadelphia offense will find its footing, all while an impressive Arizona starter begins his regression.

Which makes a whole lot of sense considering starters Michael Soroka and Jesus Luzardo have been lucky and unlucky, respectively, which is surely influencing the movement at the prediction market apps.

Luzardo is well-positioned to thrive, while Soroka could be in for an early course correction in the wrong way.

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🏆 Who will win Diamondbacks vs. Phillies? Live MLB win probability

The Phillies opened with a far greater win probability in this prediction market, beginning with a 70% chance. That fell all the way down to 57% amid trading volume that now sits at just over $61,000. There was then a gradual rebound in the Phillies' chances, and they now rest at 62.6%.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks jumped significantly from 30% to 46% almost right when the market opened. But then there was a steady slip downward, and they've been hovering around 40% since yesterday.

The movement is a bit confusing at first, as while the Phillies boast more overall talent, the early stages of an MLB season often feature offensive scuffling as hitters find their form. That's certainly been the case lately for the Phils, who have averaged a mere 1.8 runs per game across their last five contests, the most recent two of which have been shutout losses.

But pitching is surely pushing the movement toward Philadelphia. Jesus Luzardo has been struggling as well to start the season while putting up a 4.97 ERA across two starts, but he's fresh off a breakout season with a career-high 216 strikeouts.

Meanwhile, though the Diamondbacks' Michael Soroka has been successful early with his 0.90 ERA, his hard-hit rate sits at 45.8%.

My prediction: Phillies win. Yes, the Phillies' offense is struggling mightily. But the under-the-hood metrics point to horrendous early luck for Luzardo, especially when looking at his chase, whiff, strikeout, and walk rates that all sit in the 90th percentile or above, according to Baseball Savant.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Diamondbacks vs. Phillies?

Kyle Schwarber is the overwhelming favorite here while getting a 26% probability to go deep. He's far ahead of his teammate Bryce Harper at 19%, and the Diamondbacks' Ketel Marte at 15%. That all comes from an active market with nearly $50,000 in trading thus far.

It's easy to see why Schwarber is so far beyond the rest here. He's one of the only productive aspects of the Phillies' offense with his three home runs across 12 games, and an .852 OPS. He clubbed 33 dingers off right-handers like Soroka last year, and Schwarber can pounce on a mediocre fastball. He slugged .775 last season against four-seamers.

My prediction: Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run. Be aware that Soroka's expected slugging allowed of .524 is astronomically higher than his actual one of .297. The regression monster looms, and Schwarber can open that door fast. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today from our MLB expert Andrew Brennan, who's also backing Schwarber.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Diamondbacks vs. Phillies?

Trading volume in this market began to pick up yesterday afternoon, and it now sits at nearly $14,000. There have been some peaks and valleys en route to where the probability of a first-inning run rests now, but it's featured a slow increase from 40% to 46%.

The Phillies' strong early tendency to be involved in a first inning that features at least one run is no doubt pushing that movement. Philadelphia is tied for the highest YRFI record at 8-4, and the Phils are 4-2 at home.

It's a surprising record given the Phillies' recent offensive issues, but the opposition is regularly jumping on Philadelphia's starter. That includes Luzardo during his last time out, as his only run allowed across an otherwise stellar 6 2/3 innings with 11 strikeouts came in the first frame.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks also boast a standout YRFI record at 8-5 while tied for third leaguewide. Soroka is due to regress for a host of reasons, but he's allowed just one run across two starts thus far and has escaped the first inning unscathed both times.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. Regression could come quickly for Soroka, especially in the third-most homer-friendly ballpark leaguewide, according to Statcast's BallPark Factors. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Diamondbacks vs. Phillies win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Diamondbacks vs. Phillies

• Date: Friday, April 10
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Diamondbacks starter: Mike Soroka (2-0, 0.90 ERA)
• Phillies starter: Jesus Luzardo (1-1, 4.97 ERA)