⚾ Cubs vs. Guardians Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, April 3

After starting the season with a seven-game West Coast road trip, the Cleveland Guardians come home for Opening Day at Progressive Field with an interleague matchup with the Chicago Cubs. The pitching matchup features the Cubs' Cade Horton vs. Guardians southpaw Joey Cantillo, with first pitch set for 4:10 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). The Cubs are listed as a -120 moneyline betting favorite.

My Cubs vs. Guardians prediction as part of our MLB picks backs the Cubs to ruin Cleveland’s home opener behind a pitcher that has largely flown under the radar for quite some time. Horton is also the subject of my top player prop, and I also add my best home run pick on a Cubs slugger.

⚾ Cubs vs. Guardians picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.01 units

🏆 Who will win Cubs vs. Guardians?

Cleveland has alternated wins and losses since the first game of the season, which is an ominous sign with it coming off a win. The Guardians were also just 20-28 in interleague play last year, while Chicago had the second-best record in the NL in interleague games (30-18).

Score prediction: Cubs 5, Guardians 2

💰 Cubs vs. Guardians prediction & best bet

Cubs ML (-118)

It is amazing that the Guardians come home with a 4-3 record while not losing either series to two World Series contenders (Mariners and Dodgers) after hitting the way they have through seven games. 

Cleveland is collectively slashing .189/.273/.322 with 70 strikeouts thus far. By comparison, Chicago’s lineup has much more firepower after finishing fifth in runs scored and sixth in wRC+ last season. And if you’re worried about the Cubs playing in cooler weather, they scored 512 of their 793 runs in the first half of the season last year.

🔥 Best Cubs vs. Guardians player prop bet

Cade Horton Under 1.5 earned runs (+116)

Since June of last season, among pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 90 innings, Cade Horton ranks fifth with a 2.42 ERA. Two of the only four pitchers ahead of him are the two reigning Cy Young Award winners (Tarik Skibal and Paul Skenes), and the current NL Cy Young Award favorite at DraftKings (Cristopher Sanchez).

Horton generated whiffs on 24% of Nationals swings in the season opener, and finished with a 31% combined called strike and whiff percentage. His stuff was fooling the Nationals all day, as they finished with an undisciplined 42% chase rate.

I expect Horton to again come after a weak hitting Guardians lineup, just as he did when he threw first pitch strikes to 77% of batters in his debut. 

💣 Cubs vs. Guardians home run prediction

Ian Happ to hit a home run (+400)

Guardians rookie Chase DeLauter is responsible for four of the team’s six home runs. But while he became the first player in franchise history to start a career with a home run in three straight regular season games, he also missed the team’s last game after fouling a ball off his left foot.

Since I don’t have confidence in any other Cleveland bat to go deep, I’m backing Ian Happ and his 1.178 OPS against left-handed pitchers to take Joey Cantillo deep.

Happ has a three-game home run streak already this season, which was his first since Sept. 2021 and was tied for the longest of his career.

🚀 Cubs vs. Guardians same-game parlay

While I am confident in Happ's ability to homer for the fourth time this season, I am giving myself more of a chance to cash this three-leg same-game parlay by swapping his home run odds for Cleveland's team total Under. That goes hand-in-hand with Horton allowing fewer than two earned runs, and Cleveland has scored just two total runs in its three losses this year.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Cubs vs. Guardians: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Had Chicago's moneyline odds been any steeper, say -140 or higher, I would've taken a longer look at playing the run line and laying the -1.5 runs. But -118 is a fair price, and one I'll back with the same one unit of bankroll as Horton's player prop.

I rarely ever put one unit on home run props, so I am making Happ to hit a home run a 0.25-unit play while hoping the unseasonably warm 70 degree day in Cleveland helps balls fly out of Progressive Field.

📊 Live Cubs vs. Guardians odds

The odds only popped up early Friday morning as there seemed to be some confusion over Chicago's starting pitcher. As such, there hasn't been much line movement yet; at the best sports betting sites, they are practically all aligned with the Cubs' moneyline odds, ranging from -118 to -122. My only guess is that the line shades ever so slightly to Cleveland with the buzz of the game being its home opener. 

The market is evenly split between an O/U of 7.5 and 8.0. Oddly the Unders at 7.5 are juiced to -115, and the Overs of 8.0 have the same juice and 53.49% implied odds as well. That makes it difficult to predict which way the line is headed, but definitely provides some value depending on the side you like.

📈 Cubs vs. Guardians betting trends

🚑 Cubs vs. Guardians injuries

📺 How to watch Cubs vs. Guardians

• Date: Friday, April 3
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Progressive Field (Cleveland)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Cubs starter: Cade Horton (1-0, 2.84 ERA)
• Guardians starter: Joey Cantillo (0-0, 4.91 ERA)