⚾ Braves vs. Angels Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (April 6)

We have a delicious pitching matchup on tap in Anaheim tonight, as Chris Sale squares off against Jose Soriano, and I discuss why they'll both play a major role in my look at the Braves vs. Angels win probability.

This one gets underway at 9:38 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited) from Angel Stadium, and our prediction market apps list the Braves as a significant favorite with a 61% win probability after roughly $95,000 in trading volume.

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🏆 Who will win Braves vs. Angels? Live MLB win probability

This game opened on Kalshi a couple of days ago, and the Angels were initially favored to win with a 68% win probability. However, the script has been completely flipped, and now it's the Braves with the win probability better than 60%.

That's likely the result of Atlanta sending its ace, one of the best pitchers in baseball, Sale, to the mound. He's 2-0 thus far this season with an ERA below 1.00. However, the starter opposing him is no slouch, either.

Soriano is yet to give up an earned run this season, and he's also 2-0. Los Angeles has been surprisingly competent this season in general, as it owns a 5-5 record after some tough series to begin the campaign. It doesn't get any easier tonight, but I think the Angels are up to the task.

I'm interested in backing the underdogs in what should be a tightly contested game.

My prediction: Angels to win. The main reason I'm backing the Angels is because of the potential profit we'll earn by doing so. At a 39% win probability, we're making $16 in profit on a $10 investment on Yes. I think we're getting an extra dollar to $1.50 in additional profit compared to what I'd deem "fair," so I'll take advantage of that edge. 

💣 Who will hit a home run in Braves vs. Angels?

Jo Adell has three home run robberies this season and zero home runs. So, why is he trading as the favorite to hit a bomb tonight? Well, maybe because the Kalshi community has seen what I have, and that's the fact that Adell has the best home run projection for this game.

Following his 37-homer season last year, Adell is still swinging the bat hard in 2026, but he hasn't found the same level of success. With roughly $7,500 in trading volume so far, it appears people aren't scared by his season-opening drought. 

Following closely behind Adell are his teammate, Mike Trout, and Braves sluggers Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, and Austin Riley. Soriano is an extreme ground-ball pitcher, so the longer he stays in this one, the worse the outlook is for a Braves homer.

My prediction: Jo Adell to hit a home run. Based on Adell's home run projection, I'd look for a profit on a $10 investment to be somewhere in the range of $40. Well, we're getting $53 through this 16% home run probability, so that's a significant edge in the market. I took a look at some other players I like to go yard tonight with my best home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Braves vs. Angels?

After nearly $7,300 in trading volume, there isn't a huge discrepancy between whether there will be a run in the first inning or not. YRFI is trading at a 43% probability, while No is favored at 57%.

Sale and Soriano have some of the best pitching projections across the entire MLB slate today, and generally, that leads to a lack of scoring early. I'm backing these two stud pitchers to have a clean first frame, and we'd earn an $8 profit on a $10 investment on No if that comes to fruition. That's a pretty good return, as I have it closer to $7 based on how I see this game.

If you do think there will be a run in the first inning, you'll earn $13 on a $10 investment on Yes. This one hasn't moved a ton since opening, with Yes becoming slightly more probable, from 42% to 43%.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. Dustin Saracini didn't profile this in his best NRFI picks, so be sure to check out what games he's on tonight.

📊 Braves vs. Angels win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Braves vs. Angels

• Date: Monday, April 6
• First pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Angel Stadium (Anaheim)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB TV
• Braves starter: Chris Sale (2-0, 0.75 ERA)
• Angels starter: Jose Soriano (2-0, 0.00 ERA)