Best MLB Player Props Today Tuesday, Sept. 30: Best Bets for Wild-Card Round

The 2025 MLB playoffs get underway with four exciting wild-card matchups, and the fact that two series are between division rivals gives us more data to dive into our best MLB player props today.

My MLB picks back New York Yankees ace Max Fried to live up to his status while helping the Pinstripes increase their World Series odds. I add my best plays from each of the other three games today, mixing between pitcher and batter props. 

⚾ Best MLB player props today

MLB player prop bets for today's Wild-Card Round; odds subject to change.

• Kerry Carpenter Over 0.5 hits (-145 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Nick Pivetta Under 14.5 outs recorded (+129 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
• Aaron Judge to strike out 2+ times (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Max Fried Under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-102 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 walks (+117 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Best MLB player props today: Sept. 30

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Kerry Carpenter Over 0.5 hits (-145) ⭐⭐⭐

Tigers right fielder Kerry Carpenter will be a vital bat in the lineup if the Cleveland Guardians go with three right-handed starting pitchers in this series.

Carpenter has been platooning of late, but should be a fixture in the order when facing Gavin Williams, given his .812 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season. Carpenter hit all but three of his 26 home runs against righties this year, and has burned the Guardians for six home runs in 22 regular-season games.

While all of that makes Carpenter’s +450 odds and 18.18% implied probability to hit a home run enticing, I am going the safer route by backing him to record a base hit. Cleveland’s starting pitchers and relievers ranked ninth and third in ERA, respectively, so backing Carpenter to record a hit for the fourth time in his last five starts has the best chance of cashing.

There is a sizeable difference between the -145 odds to back this Over at BetMGM compared to the much steeper -200 odds on the high end of the market. Through BetMGM, a $10 winning wager would net $6.90 in profits.

Our Shane Jackson brings three more plays in his Tigers vs. Guardians player props.

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⬇️ Nick Pivetta Under 14.5 outs recorded (+129) ⭐⭐

Out of full transparency, I wanted to back the Under on San Diego Padres starter Nick Pivetta’s 15.5 outs recorded, thinking that five innings in this start would be his ceiling. But the -160 odds (carrying a 61.54% implied probability) were too steep and would only return $6.25 in profits on a winning $10 wager, so I am taking a two-star flier at a lower number at +129 odds.

Pivetta threw 76 pitches in three innings in his only start at Wrigley Field this season. He struggled with command in that outing, as it was one of seven starts this season where he issued at least three walks.

The hurler is backed by the league’s top-ranked bullpen in terms of ERA, and I expect Padres manager Mike Shildt to employ those arms aggressively throughout the postseason, leading to low innings totals from their starting pitchers.

Through DraftKings’ +129 odds, a $10 wager would return $12.90 in profits if Pivetta pitches at most 4 2/3 innings. 

Be sure to also check out our best Padres vs. Cubs player props, where Josh Goldberg gives his three best plays for Game 1.

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🔥 Aaron Judge to strike out two or more times (+110) ⭐⭐⭐

Aaron Judge ran away with the AL batting title, as his .331 average was 20 points better than the next best hitter. But he also struck out 160 times, and has hit that plateau in three of the previous four seasons. That makes this a confident three-star play, especially when facing Red Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet, against whom he has been an all-or-nothing hitter.

Judge has two home runs in 15 career at-bats against Crochet, but 11 of the 13 other at-bats have resulted in a strikeout. The Yankees slugger has averaged 1.5 strikeouts per game in his postseason career, so that makes these 47.62% implied odds enticing, considering how often he whiffs against the AL Cy Young Award contender.

If Judge strikes out multiple times in Game 1, a $10 winning wager at DraftKings would pay out $11 in profits.

⬇️ Max Fried Under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-102) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Red Sox dominated the head-to-head season series, winning nine of the 13 matchups with the Yankees. But New York won three of the final four games while holding Boston to three runs per game in that stretch, which included Fried earning the victory at Fenway Park three starts ago.

The southpaw has made three starts against the Red Sox this year, allowing two earned runs twice while shutting them out over six innings at Yankee Stadium on Aug. 22. 

Boston ranked in the top eight in the majors in runs scored and wRC+ from July 1 until early September, when Roman Anthony was called up. However, since he has been on the IL, the Red Sox have been a .500 team (11-11), ranking 28th in wRC+ in road games against left-handed pitchers.

Fried’s career 5.10 postseason ERA is likely the biggest reason why this Over is juiced as high as -135. But I am backing the Bronx to bring out the best in Fried, especially since oddsmakers listed New York as a favorite when facing one of the AL’s best pitchers. A $10 winning wager through Caesars’ -102 odds would net $9.80 in profits.

My best Red Sox vs. Yankees player props break down the entire game, and feature a couple more bonus plays for the series opener.

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⬆️ Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 walks (+117) ⭐⭐⭐

Dodgers leadoff man Shohei Ohtani walked 109 times this year, beating his previous career-high by 13. Much of that has to do with his league-leading 20 intentional walks, which added to his NL-best 1.014 OPS.

Ohtani has walked at least once in two of the last five games, and Hunter Greene could pitch around him in this matchup considering Mookie Betts does not have an extra-base hit off of him in nine career at-bats. Our Sean Tomlinson breaks down the game in his Reds vs. Dodgers player props, including why he thinks Greene won't have his best day on the bump.

These plus-money odds with a 46.08% implied probability are a better value than Ohtani’s -150 odds on the high end of the market to score a run. But those steep -150 odds given Ohtani’s league-best 146 runs scored suggest he should find his way on base often in this matchup, making it worth the flier for him to reach once via walk. 

I also like his odds my best home run predictions for today.

If Ohtani does get issued a free pass, a $10 winning wager would return $11.70 in profits.

💡 Expert MLB predictions today

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