Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds, Picks & Prop Bets for Sept. 5

My best home run predictions today focus on Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who has hit Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman very well historically.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 5, 2025 8:25 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Home Run Predictions Today: Best MLB Odds, Picks & Prop Bets for Sept. 5 — Pictured: New York Yankees left fielder Giancarlo Stanton (27) bats. Photo by Troy Taormina via Imagn Images.

All 30 Major League Baseball teams are in action to kick off the weekend, starting as early as 2:20 p.m. ET, which has me excited to cash some early best home run predictions today.

My selections are centered around the highly anticipated series between the top two teams in the AL East, as New York slugger Giancarlo Stanton has had great career success against Toronto righty Kevin Gausman. My top home run bets today also back Romy Gonzalez, Manny Machado, and Shohei Ohtani to hit home runs and round out my MLB picks.

If Gonzalez, Machado, Ohtani, and Stanton all homer, a four-leg parlay would net nearly $2,300 in profits off a $10 wager.

💰 MLB best home run predictions & odds today: Sept. 5

Best home run predictions today based on the latest MLB odds.

Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+215 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Giancarlo Stanton to hit a home run (+260 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Manny Machado to hit a home run (+310 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Romy Gonzalez to hit a home run (+550 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

💣 Best home run prediction today: MLB expert picks & prop bets

Here is my favorite MLB home run bet today and analysis of why it leads my MLB home run predictions.

⚾ Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees) to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Upon returning from the IL on June 16, Stanton did not hit a home run in any of his first 12 games. Since then, he has had only one home run drought longer than three consecutive games. His consistency and success against Kevin Gausman are why I am spotlighting him with my best home run prediction.

Gausman has been roughed up by several Yankees hitters in his career. He has allowed 14 home runs in 224 combined at-bats to current Yankees hitters, and Stanton is one of four (min. 10 AB) with an OPS of 1.033 or better against the righty.

Stanton is 8-for-27 in his career against Gausman, with three of those hits being home runs. That makes his 27.78% implied probability to homer again at the best MLB betting sites appealing. Bet this prop at DraftKings, which offers a more favorable price (+260) than the +196 at the market’s low end.

Our Josh Goldberg offers his breakdown of this key AL East battle in his Blue Jays vs. Yankees prediction.

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📊 Blue Jays vs. Yankees odds

🚀 Best home run parlay picks

Use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.

Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+215 via FanDuel)
Giancarlo Stanton to hit a home run (+196 via FanDuel)
Manny Machado to hit a home run (+310 via FanDuel)
Romy Gonzalez to hit a home run (+500 via FanDuel)

Best parlay odds: +22837 via FanDuel ($10 to win $2283.70)

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💡 Expert MLB predictions today

❓ Best home run predictions FAQs

What are the best home run props for tonight?

Our best home run predictions today feature Romy Gonzalez, Manny Machado, Shohei Ohtani, and Giancarlo Stanton.

What is a home run bet?

A home run bet is a wager on a hitter to hit a HR at any point during a game. Some sportsbooks allow you to bet on a hitter to not hit a home run, but the most common bet is on them to do so.

Can you parlay home run bets?

Yes, you can parlay home run bets. We've provided our best home run parlay today.

How do I place a home run bet?

To place a home run bet, simply go to your favorite sportsbook and go to the game featuring the player of your choice. Then click on batter props and you should see an option to bet a player to hit a home run.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”