Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Picks & Prop Bets for Sept. 16

A doubleheader between two NL East rivals gives us an extra game with which to make our best home run predictions today, but unfortunately our pick from that game isn't in the line. We're still going to build off of our +1.6 unit day of profits from Monday.

The centerpiece of my MLB picks is Boston Red Sox slugger Trevor Story, who faces an Athletics starting pitcher who is one of the most prone to the long ball in the league. My best home run bets today also take fliers on Randy Arozarena and Cody Bellinger at potential juicy payouts.

A $10 parlay on all three sluggers going yard would pay out over $1,600 in profits if they all hit a four-bagger.

💰 MLB best home run predictions & odds today: Sept. 16

Best home run predictions today based on the latest MLB odds.

• Marcell Ozuna to hit a home run- Game 1 (+625 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
• Trevor Story to hit a home run (+460 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Cody Bellinger to hit a home run (+440 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
• Randy Arozarena to hit a home run (+503 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Editors note: Ozuna was picked for a Game 1 bomb, but has been left out of the starting lineup for the matinee.

💣 Best home run prediction today: MLB expert picks & prop bets

Here is my favorite MLB home run bet today and analysis of why it leads my MLB home run predictions.

⚾ Trevor Story (Red Sox) to hit a home run (+460) ⭐⭐⭐

Red Sox slugger Trevor Story leads the team in home runs (24) and RBI (91). Although he has homered just once in his last 11 games, he has an excellent opportunity to belt his third home run of the month when facing Jeffrey Springs, one of nine pitchers to allow at least 28 home runs this season.

Springs’ .446 slugging percentage allowed to right-handed batters compared to .369 against lefties does not jump off the page as an egregious difference. But 25 of his 28 home runs allowed have been to right-handed batters, and the difference between him allowing a long ball in every 5.2% of at-bats in that split compared to 2.3% against left-handed hitters is striking. 

Story has hit more home runs (15) away from home than at Fenway Park (nine). But his batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS are all better at home, which speaks to his more consistent contact with the Green Monster as a backdrop.

Springs has allowed at least one home run in eight of his last nine starts, making Story’s 17.86% implied probability to homer a great value play based on FanDuel’s +460 odds. That is where I am headed for the best payout, where a $10 winning wager would net $46 in profits.

📊 Athletics vs. Red Sox odds

🚀 Best home run parlay picks

Use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any parlay.

• Trevor Story to hit a home run (+460 via FanDuel)
• Cody Bellinger to hit a home run (+440 via FanDuel)
• Randy Arozarena to hit a home run (+450 via FanDuel)

Parlay odds: +16224 via FanDuel ($10 to win $1,622.40)

💡Expert MLB predictions today

• MLB home run predictions
• Padres vs. Mets prediction
• Yankees vs. Twins prediction
• Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction

❓ Best home run predictions FAQs

What are the best home run props for tonight?

My best home run predictions today feature Randy Arozarena, Cody Bellinger, and Trevor Story. 

What is a home run bet?

A home run bet is a wager on a hitter to hit a HR at any point during a game. Some sportsbooks allow you to bet on a hitter to not hit a home run, but the most common bet is on them to do so.

Can you parlay home run bets?

Yes, you can parlay home run bets. We've provided our best home run parlay today.

How do I place a home run bet? 

To place a home run bet, simply go to your favorite sportsbook and go to the game featuring the player of your choice. Then click on batter props and you should see an option to bet a player to hit a home run.

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