⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Tuesday, March 31
Corbin Carroll came through last night to deliver us our first official home run win of the season, and I say let that open the floodgates.
My home run predictions today go back to the well with one of MLB's biggest superstars, who's still looking for his first home run. I'm also targeting a player who calls one of baseball's most homer-friendly ballparks his new home after an offseason move, and he, too, is seeking his first long ball of the campaign.
To complete my trio of players who profile as strong bets to break their homerless drought, I look at the matchup between the Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays, which takes place in one of the league's most hitter-friendly stadiums and featured 19 runs last night.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds March 31
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward home run (+472 via DraftKings) | 0.33u β 1.89u | Hit 36 homers in 2025, still with zero this year |
| Hunter Goodman home run (+390 via bet365) | 0.33u β 1.62u | Good matchup in terms of pitcher and ballpark |
| Juan Soto home run (+450 via bet365) | 0.33u β 1.82u | MVP front-runner still looking for first HR of season |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 4.33 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Juan Soto to hit a home run (+450)
As long as the best sports betting sites keep offering me odds that make this better than 60% +EV based on Juan Soto's home run projection, I'm going to keep betting it.
Soto once again failed to go yard last night, but I'm going right back to him today, as he has the highest home run projection of any player on Tuesday. I'd play this to a price as short as +300, so I can't see this getting to a point where you can't bet it today. Let's lock in the best possible odds and hope Soto figures it out tonight.
📡 SBR Edge: Will the real Juan Soto please stand up?
It's important to remember this was one of the preseason favorites to lead MLB in home runs after he drilled 43 last season, so this drought can only last so long.
π₯ More home run picks today
Taylor Ward to hit a home run (+472)
Much like Soto, Taylor Ward is still looking for his first long ball of the season after managing a career high in 2025, and also like Soto, I unsuccessfully bet on Ward last night.
Ward once again has a very good home run projection today at Camden Yards, which profiles as one of the most homer-friendly ballparks in baseball. The Baltimore Orioles are set to take on Jacob deGrom, who was great last season but did have a bit of a home run issue.
Based on these odds and Ward's projection, we're getting roughly 57% +EV on this, and I'd play it to odds as short as +340.
Hunter Goodman to hit a home run (+390)
And, for our final of three home run bets on players still looking for that first big fly of the year, we have Hunter Goodman. Last night's Rockies-Blue Jays game featured plenty of offense, but Goodman once again failed to go yard. He did, however, rack up two hits, and we could see more balls leave the park today with Max Scherzer on the mound for the home team.
Scherzer allowed 2.01 homers per nine innings last year, and he was especially poor at Rogers Centre.
Goodman owns a strong home run projection today, and we're getting roughly 30% +EV on this bet through these +390 odds. I'd play this as short as +350, so there's not a ton of wiggle room.
π Best home run parlay picks today
I'm parlaying my three home run bets together at DraftKings and putting $10 on them (or 0.08 units). The most important thing to remember with these home run parlays is to limit your wager size. I know it may seem enticing to put roughly 0.5 units on them and make a small fortune, but these +12138 odds represent just a 0.82% implied probability that this hits.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Taylor Ward (+472)
- Hunter Goodman (+334)
- Juan Soto (+393)
Best odds: +12138 via DraftKings (0.08u -> 9.79u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-35 | -6.20 units β | -27.9% β |
| Home run picks | 2-16 | -2.81 units β | -49.4% β |
| Parlays | 1-7 | +0.66 units β | +103.9% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager 0.33 units ($42) on all my of home run bets that feature a player with a home run projection of 0.3 or better, and on odds that provide us with 30% +EV or better.
If the player's projection is less than 0.3 but the EV is sky-high, or if the projection is very high while the EV isn't especially enticing, I will limit my wager to $25, or 0.2 units.
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