⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Friday, March 27
There may be only eight games on today's slate - what are we doing with this scheduling, MLB? - but that's not stopping us from loading up on home run bets. I've got a five-pack of home run predictions today on tap for Friday, with three of them coming from the Athletics vs. Blue Jays game.
Rogers Centre was one of the most homer-friendly ballparks in the majors last year, and I'm expecting it to remain that way in 2026. Meanwhile, we also have MLB home run picks from the first and last games of the day, with a couple of star lefties poised to crush the baseball.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds March 27
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers home run (+425 via BetMGM) | 0.33u β 1.73u | Historically owns the Yankees |
| Daulton Varsho home run (+450 via BetMGM) | 0.33u β 1.82u | Hammered the baseball when healthy in 2025 |
| Nick Kurtz home run (+342 via DraftKings) | 0.33u β 1.46u | My bet to lead MLB in home runs this year |
| Tyler Soderstrom home run (+500 via BetMGM) | 0.33u β 1.98u | Looking to build on a very impressive first full MLB season |
| Shohei Ohtani home run (+210 via FanDuel) | 0.33u β 1.02u | It's Shohei Ohtani. Need I say more? |
Total wagered: 1.67 units | Max profit: 6.34 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Nick Kurtz to hit a home run (+342)
Kurtz was one of my preseason MLB home run leader picks, and I expect him to kick off the season with a bang tonight. The Athletics slugger has the second-highest home run projection today, and based on these +342 odds, we're getting better than 33% +EV.
Be mindful of where you bet this, though, as FanDuel is sitting at +255, and I'm not particularly interested in that price. I'd bet this to odds as short as +300. Also in this game, Daulton Varsho and Tyler Soderstrom's home run props offer massive value. Let's see some big flies in Toronto.
📡 SBR Edge: Could be a loud night in Toronto
Rogers Centre played as the third-most homer-friendly ballpark last season, and Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman gave up twice as many home runs at home vs. on the road in fewer innings.
π₯ More home run picks today
Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+425)
There's a ton of hype surrounding New York Yankees starter Cam Schlittler, but I'm not completely sold on him yet. You can get away with pumping in fastball after fastball as a starting pitcher for only so long, and I think he gets a bit of a rude awakening in his first start of the season now that teams have more tape on him.
Rafael Devers absolutely smoked a liner in MLB's Opening Night game, and I think he gets the launch angle right this afternoon and lifts it out of Oracle Park. Based on his projection, we're getting better than 43% +EV on this home run bet. Even FanDuel's low price of +350 still profiles as a good bet, though I wouldn't play this at anything shorter than +335.
Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+210)
You've seen me throw around numbers like 33% and 43% +EV so far, and yes, this is only around 6% +EV. So, would I normally bet on this much of an edge on a home run prop? No, but over the course of a 162-game season, we might get +EV on a Shohei Ohtani home run prop maybe 20 times, so when it flashes on my screen, I pounce.
Dodger Stadium was the most homer-friendly ballpark in all of baseball last year, by a significant margin. Arizona Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson did well to limit the long ball somehow last year despite not getting a ton of ground balls and ranking in the fourth percentile in average exit velocity against. I think his strong season was fugazi, and Ohtani and the Dodgers will prove that tonight.
π Best home run parlay picks today
I'm going all-in on this Athletics vs. Blue Jays game and parlaying our three sluggers to go yard in that one. This game features the highest total of the day for a reason, and 60% of bettors at DraftKings are taking the Over.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Nick Kurtz (+342)
- Tyler Soderstrom (+488)
- Daulton Varsho (+365)
Best odds: +9500 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 9.6u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1-6 | -3.55 units β | -66.7% β |
| Home run picks | 0-2 | -0.67 units β | -100% β |
| Other batter props | 1-1 | +0.11 units β | +6.3% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager 0.33 units on all of my home run props, and I have no issue betting all five because of that. Even if we were to go 0-5 today, we'd lose only 1.67 units. That's not fun, but it's not the end of the world, especially when there's a strong possibility we profit even if we hit only one of them (any of Devers, Varsho, or Soderstrom hitting would result in some level of profit for the day).
As for the parlay, I bet $10 on it, which is 0.08 units for me, but I'd go as high as 0.1 units on it.
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