⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Opening Day (March 26)
💣️ SBR Edge: Best home run predictions for Opening Day
How can you not back Tyler O'Neill (+350) to go yard on Opening Day? You can't, so we won't - it's tradition at this point. Elsewhere, we're rocking with Yordan Alvarez (+330) in a plus-matchup, and Roman Anthony (+390) to pick up where he left off in the World Baseball Classic.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds for Opening Day
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (+350 via FanDuel) | .2u β 0.9u | Has homered in six straight Opening Days |
| Yordan Alvarez (+330 via FanDuel) | .2u β 0.86u | 113 MPH EV on lone hit across 3 PAs vs. Soriano |
| Roman Anthony (+390 via FanDuel) | .2u β 0.98u | Second-most HR-friendly ballpark in MLB |
Total wagered: .6 units | Max profit: 2.74 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run vs. Angels (+350)
The game is better with Alvarez healthy, and he's fully ready to go ahead of Opening Day. While Soriano relies on a high-velocity sinker to generate a league-leading ground-ball rate, Alvarez has one of the more up-and-through swing paths in baseball that will do some damage against a pitch the Angels ace throws 50% of the time. It helps that Alvarez had a .353 xBA vs. sinkers last year, and his hard-hit rate was the highest against that specific pitch. Lock him in.
📡 SBR Edge: Ballpark factors
Daikan Park doesn't hold the long ball in very well. There have been 105 home runs hit at the ballpark from 2023-25 - the eighth-most in baseball during that span.
π₯ More home run picks today
Tyler O'Neill to hit a home run vs. Twins (+350)
I would be doing you a disservice if I didn't include O'Neill on this list - he's got an incredible Opening Day homer streak you can't miss.
That's right, he's hit a bomb on Opening Day for six straight years, it might just be the best story going right now. OβNeill has faced Joe Ryan before and already has his number: in their limited head-to-head history, O'Neill is 1-for-2 with a solo home run. We'll take those - you can't simply ignore this trend.
🤑 MLB best bets for Opening Day
Looking for MLB player props? I have four more plays you have to dig into before first pitch is thrown today with my Opening Day best bets.
π Best home run parlay picks today
We're mainly following trends here, and have pinpointed three players all hitting in top-10 home-run-friendly ballparks. Let's cash in here.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Alvarez home run (+330)
- O'Neill home run (+350)
- Anthony home run (+390)
Best odds: +9382 via FanDuel (.1u -> 9.38u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0-0-0 | +0.00 units β |
| Home run picks | 0-0-0 | +0.00 units β |
| HR parlays | 0-0-0 | +0.00 units β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
To handicap home run bets effectively, focus on hitters with high barrel rates and pull air percentages facing fly-ball pitchers who struggle with home-run-to-fly-ball (HR/FB) ratios. Always cross-reference the matchup with park factors and real-time weather. Finally, look for pitch-type vulnerabilities, such as a slugger who excels at hitting high-velocity sinkers facing a starter like Jose Soriano, who relies heavily on that specific pitch. We've identified Yordan Alvarez as our best play as a result. I'm allocating .2u (or $20) to each bet today, and won't expose more of my bankroll than that throughout the year.
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