⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Thursday, April 2
There are only three MLB games scheduled today for some nonsensical reason, but that's not stopping me from finding a trio of home run bets to make.
My home run predictions today have started to get on the right track after a brutal first few days, and I'm looking to carry that momentum through to the end of this second week of action.
I'm going back to the well with a superstar who finally hit his first homer of the season and backing a pair of lefties who have been crushing the baseball to start the year.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 2
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin home run (+531 via DraftKings) | 0.2u β 1.26u | Some of the best batted-ball data in all of baseball |
| Corbin Carroll home run (+503 via FanDuel) | 0.2u β 1.21u | Swinging the bat faster than ever before |
| Juan Soto home run (+430 via FanDuel) | 0.33u β 1.75u | Exit velocities are trending in right direction after slow start |
Total wagered: 0.73 unit | Max profit: 3.49 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Juan Soto to hit a home run (+430)
Juan Soto finally hit his first home run of the season yesterday, and after a brutally slow start to the campaign, he's starting to heat up. Soto has five hard-hit balls in his last three games, including two at over 109 mph yesterday.
I had bet on Soto to hit a home run in the two days prior to yesterday's long ball, as he owned one of the best projections among all players. There are only three games today, but he once again has the best home run projection. Based on it, we're getting better than 40% +EV through these +430 odds.
📡 SBR Edge: Will Soto's first open the floodgates?
It's important to remember this was one of the preseason favorites to lead MLB in home runs. He hit 43 long balls last year, and yesterday's first should get him rolling here.
π₯ More home run picks today
Drake Baldwin to hit a home run (+531)
Unlike Soto, Drake Baldwin has had no issues at the plate to start the year. The 2025 National League Rookie of the Year is in the 90th percentile or better in nearly every single batted-ball data category. That includes a 7.7% strikeout rate to a 15.4% walk rate (absurd), and a 90th percentile average exit velocity and hard-hit rate to go with a 96th percentile barrel rate.
Baldwin only barely beat out Cade Horton for ROY honors last year, but he's quickly transitioning from one of the two best rookies in the NL to one of the best catchers in all of baseball.
Based on his home run projection today, we're getting nearly 45% +EV on this bet.
Corbin Carroll to hit a home run (+503)
I think anyone who was worried about Corbin Carroll's preseason hand injury sapping his power can breathe a sight of relief. He's popped two homers this season, and his average exit velocity is sitting even a bit higher than it did last year when he swatted 32 homers.
One of Carroll's more significant changes from 2024 to 2025 to hit nine more homers was an increase in bat speed. Well, he's made another jump in that regard from last season to this one, and he could challenge for 40-40 this campaign as a result.
Based on Carroll's home run projection today, we're getting roughly 33% +EV on this bet.
π Best home run parlay picks today
I'm parlaying my three home run bets together at DraftKings and putting $10 on them (or 0.08 units). The most important thing to remember with these home run parlays is to limit your wager size. I know it may seem enticing to put roughly 0.5 units on them and make a small fortune, but these +17504 odds represent just a 0.57% implied probability that this hits.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Drake Baldwin (+531)
- Corbin Carroll (+503)
- Juan Soto (+389)
Best odds: +17504 via DraftKings (0.08u -> 14.08u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-42 | -6.41 units β | -25.6% β |
| Home run picks | 3-18 | -2.18 units β | -32.7% β |
| Parlays | 1-9 | +0.50 units β | +63.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager 0.33 units ($42) on my of home run bets that feature a player with a home run projection of 0.3 or better, and on odds that provide us with 30% +EV or better.
If the player's projection is less than 0.3 but the EV is sky-high, or if the projection is very high while the EV isn't especially enticing, I will limit my wager to $25, or 0.2 units.
For today's, Soto's projection is 0.31, while Baldwin's is 0.26 and Carroll's is 0.25. The latter two are still great bets, but there's a lower probability they go yard based on their projection.
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