⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Friday, April 10
We're looking to close out the week on a high note, and my home run predictions today could provide us with some extra cash for the weekend.
I'm back with four home run picks today, and it's a quartet of big lefties who I'm rolling with today. Each of them has a very promising home run projection along with very enticing odds.
I've also parlayed the four of them together for a mega +108392lotto ticket. Let's see some dingers today.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 10
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber home run (+280 via FanDuel) | 0.33u β1.23u | Highest home run projection of any player today |
| Matt Wallner home run (+670 via DraftKings) | 0.33u β 2.54u | Takes on Patrick Corbin today. Need I say more? |
| Colson Montgomery home run (+626 via bet365) | 0.33u β 2.39u | Hit 21 homers in just 71 games as a rookie in 2025 |
| Wilyer Abreu home run (+520 via FanDuel) | 0.33u β 2.05u | Has been one of the best hitters in baseball to start the year |
Total wagered: 1.33 units | Max profit: 6.88 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Kyle Schwarber home run (+280)
Kyle Schwarber has the best home run projection of any player today at 0.38, so even though these +280 odds are relatively short compared to the others players I've gone with today, this still profiles as a really strong bet.
Based on this price, we're getting better than 20% +EV, and if it ranges into +300 territory at any of our best sports betting sites, this would become an absolute steal.
Schwarber is annihilating the baseball as usual to start the year, and he takes on Mike Soroka tonight, who's due for some regression in the home run department.
📡 SBR Edge: Taking advantage of homer-friendly ballpark
The Phillies head back to Citizens Bank Park tonight after a road trip, and it's been the third-most home run friendly ballpark in baseball during the last three years.
π₯ More home run picks today
Matt Wallner home run (+670)
The Toronto Blue Jays did baseball bettors everywhere a favor by providing us with another year (or as long as he lasts) of Patrick Corbin Day. And let's celebrate arguably baseball's worst pitcher of the last five years by betting on someone to hit a nuke against him.
Matt Wallner has been striking out a ton to start the season, but he also has three homers, and he has a solid projection to add to that total today against Corbin. Additionally, we're getting incredible odds on this one because of the lefty-lefty matchup. However, Corbin is as much of a threat against fellow lefties as a small breeze is against a 100-year-old tree.
This is an absurd 82% +EV, and you might have to sit through some ugly plate appearances by Wallner, but hopefully one of them results in a homer.
Wilyer Abreu home run (+520)
Wilyer Abreu has been one of baseball's best hitters to start the year, and he and the Boston Red Sox take on a pitcher who probably shouldn't be in the league anymore.
Dustin May is atrocious in basically every way. He doesn't strike guys out, he gives up a ton of walks, and he allows homers for fun.
The Red Sox are struggling to start the season, but Abreu already has three homers, and he has one of the best projections today. Based on his outlook, we're getting better than 56% +EV on this one.
π Best home run parlay picks today
I'm parlaying my four home run bets together and I'm putting $10 on them (or 0.08 units). The most important thing to remember with these home run parlays is to limit your wager size. I know it may seem enticing to put more money on them and make a small fortune, but these +108392 odds represent just a 0.09% implied probability that this hits.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Kyle Schwarber (+274)
- Matt Wallner (+640)
- Colson Montgomery (+559)
- Wilyer Abreu (+472)
Best odds: +108392 via DraftKings (0.08u -> 86.79u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-78 | -15.91 units β | -32.1% β |
| Home run picks | 5-34 | -4.33 units β | -35.1% β |
| Parlays | 1-17 | -0.46 units β | -27.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager 0.33 units ($42) on my of home run bets that feature a player with at least one home run projection of 0.3 or better, and on odds that provide us with 25% +EV or better.
I've begun to add a second projection model into my process, and I'll continue to tinker with that as the season progresses. The more information you have, the better, but you also don't want to get buried in numbers and forget what you know about the sport. That's something I'm still working through even now after years of finding success with baseball betting.
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