⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Wednesday, April 1
It's Zac Gallen day, which is always a time to celebrate as we make our home run predictions today.
Gallen was among the league leaders in home runs allowed last season, so targeting him is mandatory for your MLB home run picks. He gave up a dinger and four earned runs across just four innings during his first start this season, and now the Detroit Tigers' Kerry Carpenter can use him as a slump stopper.
Elsewhere, Will Smith is set up well to tee off at the homer launchpad that is Dodger Stadium, and Rafael Devers can pick on a former teammate.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 1
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kerry Carpenter home run (+400 via bet365) | 0.30u β 1.20u | Zac Gallen is still a human homer ticket. |
| Rafael Devers home run (+349 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.70u | Can feast on Nick Pivetta's curveball. |
| Will Smith home run (+450 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.90u | Great chance to hunt heat against Gavin Williams' vulnerable fastball. |
Total wagered: 0.70 units | Max profit: 2.73 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Kerry Carpenter to hit a home run (+375)
Kerry Carpenter is off to a woeful start while slashing just .105/.227/.333. But tonight he gets an ideal chance to turn his fortunes around fast.
Carpenter is the classic left-handed specialist who mashes against righties, posting an .812 OPS last year when facing a righty as opposed to .638 with a southpaw on the mound. And in Gallen he gets a hurler who has been charitable while handing out dingers after giving up 31 last year, tied for the fourth-most leaguewide. It was a season when Gallen's fly-ball rate jumped considerably, going from 23.6% in 2024 to 30.3%.
📡 SBR Edge: Gunning for Gallen
Targeting Gallen in your home run props is always wise, and especially with a left-handed slugger like Carpenter. Gallen's average exit velocity allowed and expected slugging both sat in the bottom 10% of MLB last year.
π₯ More home run picks today
Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+349)
Rafael Devers is similarly off to a sputtering start, but as usual he maintains a high-end hard-hit percentage while sitting at 60% early, according to Baseball Savant. That fuels optimism for positive regression quickly, and it's a key dinger-friendly metric that Devers has sat among the top 5% of MLB in during each of the past four seasons.
Now he faces Nick Pivetta. The righty is fresh off a career-best season with a 2.87 ERA. But he leans heavily on a pitch Devers jumps on often, throwing his curveball 22.4% of the time last season. Devers slugged .688 against curveballs.
Will Smith to hit a home run (+450)
Like Devers, Will Smith can lock in on an offering that he does damage against tonight.
He'll spend a chunk of his evening facing Cleveland Guardians starter Gavin Williams, who utilizes his heater frequently since it averages 96.5 mph. He threw it 32.6% of the time last year, and Smith produced an expected slugging of .525 against fastballs. The catcher sits at .693 early this season.
Targeting Dodgers players in an ideal matchup is always a good play not just because of the immense talent on that World Series odds-leading club, but due to the dinger haven that is the team's home ballpark. Dodger Stadium was the most homer-happy place last season, according to Statcast's ballpark factors, with 27% more long balls there than elsewhere.
π Best home run parlay picks today
Home run props in general need to be approached with entertainment in mind, and that's doubly so with parlays. The colossal +12000 odds we're getting here imply a 0.83% chance the parlay hits. All three batters get appealing matchups though, so tossing out some couch change here would lead to a massive profit.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Kerry Carpenter (+400)
- Rafael Devers (+340)
- Will Smith (+450)
Best odds: +12000 via FanDuel (0.08u -> 9.6u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-16-0 | -0.61 units β | -4.3% β |
| Game picks | 3-2-0 | 0.96 units β | 14.8% β |
| Player props | 4-9-0 | -0.83 units β | -12.5% β |
| Parlays | 1-4 | 0.25 units β | 25.0% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Even the most appealing dinger props are only worth a sprinkle due to the volatile nature of the market.
That's true again today, though the sprinkling is a touch heavier on Carpenter because the opportunity against Gallen is particularly alluring. We're also getting slightly longer odds than usual due to Carpenter's mini slump to begin the season.
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