⚾ MLB Win Totals Picks, Predictions 2026: Overs & Unders to Bet in Spring Training

If you aren't betting on the latest MLB projected win totals and Over/Under wins odds, you're absolutely missing out.

Each year, this profiles as one of the most popular MLB futures markets, and it allows fans and bettors to invest - financially and emotionally - in a team for the entire season. I'm delivering my six best MLB win totals picks, with three Overs and three Unders, so whether you want to cheer on a team or hate-watch it, you're covered.

💰 MLB win totals picks: My best bets

There are various reasons why MLB win totals are so popular to bet on. There's no voting, no politicking, no storylines. It's objective: said team will either win more or fewer games than the total listed at the best sports betting sites. 

There's a ton of data at your disposal, as the leading projection models are also free, so you're not spending money to make money. 

You can also use different strategies. Personally, I bet only Overs, because I don't enjoy rooting against teams for an entire season - unless they're an AL East rival of my Boston Red Sox - and betting should still be fun even if you take it more seriously like I do. You're not going to lose bets you didn't make.

However, some people like to bet Unders, so I've provided my three best for the 2026 MLB season, with three of my favorite Overs too. All totals and odds are via FanDuel.

⬆️ Athletics Over 75.5 wins (-105)

I'm all over the Athletics this year, and a big reason for that is due to their super exciting young talent. I featured perhaps the biggest star of the bunch, Nick Kurtz, in my MLB home run leader odds and picks.

I use two projection models to inform my picks: FanGraphs' Depth Charts and PECOTA. Generally, I like both to be in agreement on a team before I bet it. The former is higher on the Athletics, whom it projects to finish with an 80-82 record. PECOTA is lower at 76.6-85.4, which is still just above this number. I'm personally very high on the A's, so that acted as the tiebreaker of sorts.

This was my first futures bet of the 2026 season, which you can track on X:

⬆️ Rays Over 76.5 wins (-104)

Sure, the Rays may not be as flashy and exciting as the rest of the AL East, but this is still a really good ballclub. And they are way better than this number suggests.

Depth Charts has the Rays finishing at .500 with an 81-81 record while PECOTA is even more bullish at 82-80. As a Red Sox fan, I regularly find the Rays to be one of the most annoying teams in baseball, so that was enough for me to smash the Over.

⬆️ Pirates Over 78.5 wins (-104)

I don't like the concept of having an "American League team" and a "National League team." You're a fan of one team and that's it. Stop sitting on the fence. However, if I did have an NL team this year, it'd be the Pirates. 

I love this Pirates this season, as I've highlighted them in countless articles already, including my look at the best MLB win totals sleeper picks and predictions. I also suggested you bet on them to do even more than just eclipse this total with my five MLB futures bets to make during spring training.

Both of the projection models I use have the Pirates winning at least 80 games, and if they put it all together, they could absolutely contend for the division crown. I've already made two Pirates futures bets, and I plan to make more this year (italics represents bet is yet to be made but is being tracked).

⬇️ Dodgers Under 103.5 wins (-108)

I know, this feels awful. Trust me, I bent the rules of my 10 MLB players to watch this season just to shoehorn the Dodgers into it. This team is ridiculous. But do you know what else is ridiculous? A win total of 103.5 games.

The Dodgers don't need to win 104 games. They need to make the playoffs, and probably want to win the division in the process. But they aren't going to kill themselves in July to grind out every win if the rest of the NL West stinks (and it might). Similarly to how I had to bet the Rockies to go Over their win total because it's too low, if I was going to bet Unders, I'd simply have to do this.

Depth Charts has the Dodgers winning 96 games, and that's still seven more than any other team.

⬇️ Brewers Under 84.5 wins (-112)

I'm a bit conflicted on the Brewers this season. They won 97 games last year and I featured a pair of their players in my MLB awards long-shot bets. However, I'm not sure they're that good.

Both Depth Charts and PECOTA are low on them, with the latter not even having them at .500. This actually profiles as one of the best bets on the entire board if taking the Under on the team that led baseball in wins in 2025 doesn't make you queasy. 

⬇️ Guardians Under 78.5 wins (-112)

There must be something about winning the Central in 2025 and being stinky in 2026, because just as the Brewers are projected to go Under their already-low total, so are the Guardians.

This is a team that won 88 games last year, and it doesn't even need to go .500 to go Over this total. And yet, I'm still taking the Under. Both projection models have Cleveland finishing with right around 76 wins to sit fourth in the AL Central. And if you watched the Guardians last year, you know why.

They weren't good. This was a team that severely overperformed, with a minus-six run differential being worse than those of nine teams that finished with fewer wins than Cleveland. All credit to manager Stephen Vogt, who dealt with diabolical betting scandals and a generally awful lineup. But there will be no miracles in 2026.