MLB Stolen Base Prop Picks for Friday: Will Mitchell Stop Hitting Homers and Steal Some Bags?

Check out today's MLB stolen base prop picks for Friday's full schedule.

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: April 7, 2023 12:47 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Steals are back on the menu in 2023. With so many players running wild, can we find value in the stolen base market? Find out with our best MLB stolen base prop picks based on the best MLB odds.

We're back with some stolen base props ahead of the weekend. With nearly every team playing on Friday, we have plenty of options in the market.

Once again, we're seeking out any funky prices on those players with higher projected steal totals on Friday.

Here are our top MLB stolen base prop picks for Friday (odds via DraftKings, BetMGM, and theScore Bet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Friday’s MLB stolen base props

Jorge Mateo Over 0.5 steals (+375 via theScore Bet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 steals (+500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Whit Merrifield Over 0.5 steals (+600 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Friday’s MLB stolen base prop picks

Jorge Mateo Over 0.5 steals (+375 via theScore Bet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Only fellow Baltimore Orioles speedster Cedric Mullins has a significantly higher projected stolen base total than Jorge Mateo does Friday. The three players with projections closest to Mateo's are Bobby Witt, Jon Berti, and Kyle Tucker. The former two are both shorter than +300 at DraftKings, while the latter is trading at 45 cents shorter than this price on Mateo.

Mateo has been red-hot to start the 2023 season. He's tied for second in the league with four steals and is getting on base at an incredible .421 clip thanks to a 15% walk rate.

The Orioles ran wild on the Boston Red Sox but slowed things down in Texas against the Rangers. However, I expect them to crank it back up in their home opener against the AL East rival New York Yankees.

I think Mullins is more likely to steal a base than Mateo, but his price is just far too short. We're betting on the price, not the player, but it doesn't hurt that the player is one of the league's premier speedsters.

Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 steals (+500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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Garrett Mitchell has yet to attempt a steal this season after nabbing eight bags in 28 games last year. It's not for a lack of speed, though, as Mitchell is one of the fastest players in all of baseball and has already recorded three bolts in just six games. He's also getting on base at a decent clip, too.

So, what's the deal? Well, the main issue is that Mitchell hasn't really given himself too many opportunities to steal. Of his six hits, three have been home runs and another was a triple. And don't tell Josh Rojas, but stealing home is pretty difficult.

However, Mitchell owns the sixth-highest stolen base projection for Friday's action, according to NumberFire. In terms of players with similar projections and speed profiles, Trea Turner is priced at +320 on DraftKings.

Maybe Mitchell hits his way out of stolen base opportunities once again, but at this price, I'll bet on him taking off if he reaches first base.

Whit Merrifield Over 0.5 steals (+600 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

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Once a stolen base machine, Whit Merrifield has also yet to attempt a steal this season. However, unlike Mitchell, it's not due to an abundance of extra-base hits.

Merrifield has thus far struggled to get on base for the Toronto Blue Jays, and he also appears to be running much slower than in years past when he does reach. His sprint speed is easily the lowest of his career, and it's possible Merrifield is just washed.

However, he does own one of the higher projected stolen base totals for Friday, matching that of Turner and exceeding those of Julio Rodriguez and Ronald Acuna. However, he's being priced among Blue Jays teammates Daulton Varsho and Bo Bichette, who are both much further down Friday's projections (0.12 steals to Merrifield's 0.22).

This is the first time I've backed Merrifield to steal a base this season, and it could be the last. We'll take a stab, though, thanks to the value we're getting Friday.

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Written by:
Andrew Brennan

Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023 while building his NFL experience. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.