MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Will Gallen Improve Cy Young Resume?
Fourteen new series begin Friday, rounding out an exciting 15-game Major League Baseball slate heading into the weekend. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday based on the best MLB odds.
Home runs were a big theme of Thursday’s small six-game slate. Los Angeles Dodgers southpaw Julio Urias made history of the wrong kind, tying the franchise record for most home runs allowed in one inning (four), per ESPN Stats & Info. In addition, New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge set the franchise record for most home runs in a career against the Toronto Blue Jays (32). Which pitchers and batters have our attention Friday?
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday’s MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-180) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+155)
- Milwaukee Brewers (OFF) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- New York Yankees (-165) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+140)
- Chicago Cubs (+105) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-125)
- Detroit Tigers (-115) vs. Washington Nationals (-105)
- Baltimore Orioles (+125) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-145)
- Cleveland Guardians (+130) vs. New York Mets (-150)
- Seattle Mariners (+125) vs. Atlanta Braves (-145)
- Colorado Rockies (+180) vs. Texas Rangers (-210)
- Kansas City Royals (+110) vs. Chicago White Sox (-130)
- Oakland Athletics (+210) vs. Houston Astros (-250)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+115)
- Minnesota Twins (-130) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+110)
- Boston Red Sox (+125) vs. San Diego Padres (-145)
- Miami Marlins (+100) vs. San Francisco Giants (-120)
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Friday’s MLB best bets
- Player prop: Zac Gallen to record a win (+105 via DraftKings) vs. Pirates ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Carlos Carrasco Under earned runs (OFF) vs. Guardians ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 RBIs (+200 via DraftKings) vs. Red Sox ⭐⭐⭐
- Moneyline: Giants ML vs. Marlins (-115 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Friday’s MLB prop picks
Player prop: Zac Gallen to record a win vs. Pirates (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Ask any Pittsburgh Pirates fan; they would likely have signed up for a 23-20 record through 43 games. However, the Pirates were playing at a 116-win pace at one point when they were 20-8, and their 3-12 record since is essentially a product of a lack of offense.
In the last 15 games, the Pirates have been held to three or fewer runs 13 times and two or fewer 11 times. That is an issue when facing Arizona Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen, who leads the league with an .857 winning percentage, 1.79 FIP, 0.855 WHIP, and 8.75 strikeouts per win. Johan Oviedo opposes Gallen, and his 10.5 hits per nine 4.3 walks per nine rates suggest the Diamondbacks should have little issue building an early lead.
Caesars also offers plus-money odds for this wager, but with a slightly less favorable return (+100) than DraftKings.
Player prop: Carlos Carrasco Under earned runs vs. Guardians (OFF) ⭐⭐⭐
New York Mets righty Carlos Carrasco makes his first start since April 15 after he landed on the IL with right elbow swelling due to a bone chip. Given that Carrasco threw 52 pitches in his second rehab start on Sunday, he will likely not be stretched out much in this game (five innings maximum), and a shorter outing is good for this wager.
Carrasco has a revenge factor going after spending the first 11 years of his career with the Cleveland Guardians. He has a great chance to improve his 8.56 ERA, as the Guardians have scored three or fewer runs in 11 of their last 15 games. Josh Bell is the only Guardians regular who has ever faced Carrasco, which makes the unfamiliarity with Carrasco’s changeup that has produced a whiff percentage of 31.4% or higher every year since 2017 that much more of a weapon.
This is a three-star play, as Carrasco should only face the Guardians lineup twice, and he has held opposing hitters to a collective .243 and .258 batting average the first and second time through the order, respectively, throughout his career.
Sportsbooks are likely slow to release Carrasco’s pitcher prop odds until they learn more information about the team’s plans for how long of a start he will make. But if no such props become available, we would advise backing the Mets’ first three inning moneyline odds at -140.
Player prop: Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Red Sox (+200 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Boston Red Sox southpaw James Paxton made his first start since April 2021 last Friday. He looked sharp, limiting the St. Louis Cardinals to two earned runs over five innings while striking out nine. However, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. each have OPSs of .928 and strikeout percentages of 15.4% or better against southpaws this season, which should give Xander Bogaerts plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.
Bogaerts is slashing .304/.333/.783 in 23 career at-bats against Paxton, and it should just take one hit to drive in a run, considering five of his seven hits in this matchup went for extra bases. This is only a three-star play as the Padres started the week ranked dead last with runners in scoring position (.198 average), but Bogaerts should see some positive regression from his three RBIs in May, especially since he is second on the team in WAR (1.7).
DraftKings offers by far the best value for this prop, as FanDuel and Caesars are at +155 and +184, respectively.
Friday’s MLB game picks
Moneyline: Giants ML vs. Marlins (-115 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
It's not often that the defending Cy Young award winner is an underdog, but that is the case in this matchup, as Sandy Alcantara has struggled mightily so far this season. The Miami Marlins ace ranks in the bottom third of the league in xBA (.262), one year after posting the best mark of that metric (.215) of his career. Alcantara has had starts skipped because of biceps tendinitis, and it is fair to wonder if he is 100% even though he has not served an IL stint.
Alcantara does not get much run support, as entering Thursday’s series finale against the Washington Nationals, right-handed starting pitchers had a 2.75 ERA in the past 30 days against the Marlins, per Inside Edge. And it may not be coincidental that the San Francisco Giants’ sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies coincided with their lineup being the healthiest it has been in quite some time, getting back Brandon Crawford and Mike Yastrzemski from IL stints.
WynnBet is the only sportsbook offering less than -118 odds to back the Giants.
MLB best bets made 5/19/2023 at 6:27 a.m. ET.
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