MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Will Cole Lead Yankees to Another Win?

Ten Major League Baseball series conclude Wednesday, with several in the afternoon window on a popular mid-week getaway day. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds.

Sportsbooks did not do well from a home run batter prop yesterday, as many of Major League Baseball’s top players (Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna Jr., Nolan Arenado) all hit home runs. Arenado in particular has homered in five consecutive games, and he looks to inch closer to the MLB record of eight straight.

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Wednesday’s MLB schedule and odds

• Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) vs. Detroit Tigers (-155)
• Minnesota Twins (+125) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-145)
• Cincinnati Reds (+100) vs. Colorado Rockies (-120)
• Arizona Diamondbacks (-165) vs. Oakland Athletics (+140)
• Philadelphia Phillies (-120) vs. San Francisco Giants (+100)
• Kansas City Royals (+195) vs. San Diego Padres (-230)
• Los Angeles Angels (+115) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-135)
• Washington Nationals (+110) vs. Miami Marlins (-130)
• New York Yankees (-120) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+100)
• Seattle Mariners (+105) vs. Boston Red Sox (-125)
• Tampa Bay Rays (-105) vs. New York Mets (-115)
• Milwaukee Brewers (-115) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-105)
• Atlanta Braves (-155) vs. Texas Rangers (+135)
• Chicago Cubs (+135) vs. Houston Astros (-155)
• Cleveland Guardians (-105) vs. Chicago White Sox (-115)

Wednesday’s MLB best bets

• Player prop: Austin Gomber Under 3.5 earned runs allowed (-150 via DraftKings) vs. Reds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 runs (-113 via Caesars) vs. Athletics ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Corbin Burnes Over 17.5 outs (-150 via DraftKings) vs. Cardinals ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Moneyline: Yankees (-115 via WynnBet) vs. Blue Jays ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Wednesday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Austin Gomber Under 3.5 earned runs allowed vs. Reds (-150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Backing a Colorado Rockies starting pitcher to succeed, especially when pitching at Coors Field, is risky. However, southpaw Austin Gomber has turned things around completely from a poor beginning to the season, when he was saddled with a 12.12 ERA and completed five innings just once through four starts. Gomber has lowered his ERA to 6.30 in his last four appearances on the strength of three quality starts in that span. In the only outing when he did not have a quality start, he still threw five scoreless innings on the road against the Cleveland Guardians.

While Gomber has given his team more length in his outings of late, we are eschewing his outs-recorded prop since he has thrown more than 86 pitches just once in a start this year. Thus, his 80.1 pitches per start average play into him allowing fewer runs over fewer innings, especially against a Cincinnati Reds lineup that ranks 26th in wRC+ and OPS and dead last in ISO against left-handed pitching.

This is a confident four-star play as oddsmakers are giving Reds starter Graham Ashcraft more of the benefit of the doubt with his O/U at 2.5 earned runs despite being underdogs in the game.

Player prop: Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 runs vs. Athletics (-113 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Entering Tuesday, the gap between the Oakland Athletics’ 7.21 ERA and Chicago's 29th-ranked ERA (5.55) was bigger than the one between that of the White Sox and the Los Angeles Dodgers, who rank in the top 10 in the majors with a 3.93 team ERA. Thus, it is wise to expect the Arizona Diamondbacks to score runs in this matchup (their projected team total is O/U 5.5), and there are not many players we expect to score more frequently than rookie Corbin Carroll.

Carroll has scored a team-high 26 runs, often capitalizing on a .365 OBP that ranks second among all Diamondbacks hitters with 100-plus at-bats. Though his 65 total bases rank fourth on the team, Carroll often puts himself in better scoring positions with 10 stolen bases, and he has scored at least one run in 11 of 17 games against teams without a winning record this season. 

Among our best sports betting apps, Caesars has slightly better odds than DraftKings’ -115, and provides much better value than FanDuel’s -135 odds.

Player prop: Corbin Burnes Over 17.5 outs vs. Cardinals (-150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Milwaukee Brewers need a long outing after allowing 20 runs through the first two games of this series against the St. Louis Cardinals. Righty Corbin Burnes should be able to provide the Brewers with length considering he has completed six innings in three consecutive starts while lowering his ERA from 4.55 to 3.35 in that span.

Burnes has limited current Cardinals hitters to a .220/.276/.347 slash line in 164 combined at-bats. Burnes also figures to have the advantage over the red-hot Nolan Arenado, who has homered in five consecutive games, considering he has limited him to a .200 average (4-for-20) with just one extra-base hit.

This is a four-star play, as Burnes is 3-2 with a 1.82 ERA in nine appearances (six starts) at Busch Stadium, the second-lowest at any ballpark where he has made at least three starts.

We are making this wager at DraftKings, which has slightly better odds than the -155 found at Caesars and any of our other best sportsbooks.

Wednesday’s MLB game picks

Moneyline: Yankees ML vs. Blue Jays (-115 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The New York Yankees are 8-1 in games Gerrit Cole has started and 17-18 in games he has not. That is more impressive when considering the Yankees entered Tuesday having played the second-hardest schedule in baseball so far based on opponents’ winning percentage (.530). Furthermore, The lone loss in a Cole start was an 8-7 defeat to the best team in baseball (the Tampa Bay Rays) in a game the Yankees at one point led 6-0.

Cole’s impressive start to the season largely results from him keeping the ball in the yard. Cole allowed a league-high 33 home runs last year but has given up four long balls in 56 2/3 innings, which is on pace for his lowest HR/9 rate since 2016. That will come in handy in this start at the Rogers Centre, where Cole has been tagged for three home runs in 12 1/3 innings but has otherwise limited the damage with a 1.05 WHIP.

WynnBet is the only one of our best MLB betting sites offering better than -118 for the Yankees to win outright.

MLB best bets made 5/17/2023 at 6:18 a.m. ET.

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

• FanDuel: $1,000 No Sweat First Bet | Read our FanDuel Review
• Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
• DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
• PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
• BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

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Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)