MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Are Mets Unworthy Favorites After Poor June?

Check out today's MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday's full schedule.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: July 1, 2023 8:41 AM EDT • 6 minute read

Major League Baseball rings in the first day of July with a jampacked 16-game weekend slate, which includes a doubleheader between the New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds from the best MLB betting sites.

By the end of the day, every team will have played its 81st game, which means we are through the first half of the season. In the second half, it will be interesting to watch Luis Arraez’s pursuit of .400, Ronald Acuna’s pursuit of 40/40, and to see what more Shohei Ohtani can do to amaze us on a daily basis (he hit a 493-foot home run Friday night, the longest of the season).

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday (odds via DraftKings, PointsBet, and WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Saturday’s MLB schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

San Diego Padres (-165) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+140)
New York Yankees (-110) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-110) Game 1
New York Yankees (-OFF) vs. St. Louis Cardinals Game 2
Boston Red Sox (+135) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-155)
Houston Astros (+115) vs. Texas Rangers (-135)
Minnesota Twins (+120) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-140)
Washington Nationals (+170) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-200)
Milwaukee Brewers (-145) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+125)
Chicago White Sox (OFF) vs. Oakland Athletics
San Francisco Giants (+125) vs. New York Mets (-145)
Miami Marlins (+145) vs. Atlanta Braves (-170)
Cleveland Guardians (+115) vs. Chicago Cubs (-135)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-250) vs. Kansas City Royals (+210)
Tampa Bay Rays (-115) vs. Seattle Mariners (-105)
Detroit Tigers (OFF) vs. Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+125)

Saturday’s MLB best bets

Player prop: Luis Severino Under 16.5 outs recorded (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Cardinals ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Jose Altuve Over 0.5 runs scored (+120 via DraftKings) vs. Rangers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Ketel Marte Over 0.5 RBIs (+140 via PointsBet) vs. Angels ⭐⭐⭐
Upset: Giants ML vs. Mets (+128 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐

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Saturday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Luis Severino Under 16.5 outs recorded vs. Cardinals (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Conventional wisdom would say that a manager would lean on each of his starting pitchers more in a doubleheader as they would not want to tire out their bullpen with 54 outs to get throughout the day. However, weather is Luis Severino's primary concern in the first game of the doubleheader against the Cardinals, as forecasts are calling for a steamy 92 degrees with 63% humidity during the day.

Severino is coming off a June where he pitched to a 6.93 ERA and recorded more than 15 outs just once in five starts. Yankees brass will be keeping an eye on Severino’s velocity, as his fastball dipped from 97.0 and 98.1 mph in two May starts, to topping out at 95.8 on average through two early-June appearances.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone’s top-ranked bullpen (Yankees relievers have combined for a 2.82 ERA) is rested after being used lightly against the Oakland Athletics (and not at all in Domingo German’s perfect game). And following another off-day Friday, Boone should utilize his stable of relievers more than usual on a hot and humid day to protect his starting pitcher.

With Caesars slightly more juiced to the Under 16.5 outs recorded at -113 odds, DraftKings is our go-to shop.

Player prop: Jose Altuve Over 0.5 runs scored vs. Rangers (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jose Altuve has scored 23 runs in 29 games and leads all healthy Houston Astros hitters with a .380 on-base percentage. He has especially heated up over the last four games, going 7-for-15 at the plate with seven runs scored, which came off a 1-for-15 slump. Thus, while Altuve ended June with a .253/.360/.440 slash line compared to a .324/.425/.588 slash line in May, we are encouraged by his recent hot streak.

This is a four-star play as Altuve is 8-for-24 with five extra-base hits and a 1.152 career OPS against Texas Rangers righty Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi has allowed three-plus runs in three of his last four starts, and his 4.43 ERA against Houston is the third-worst against any opponent he has made at least six starts against.

The +120 odds at DraftKings look like a steal considering Altuve is as low as -115 to score a run at FanDuel.

Player prop: Ketel Marte Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Angels (+140 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐

If Arraez were not in pursuit of a historic .400 batting average, there is little doubt the Arizona Diamondbacks' Ketel Marte would be the starting second baseman for the National League in the All-Star Game.

Marte's bWAR (3.2) is on pace to be double what it was last year, and the switch-hitter ended June with a .315/.442/.598 slash line, his best month in every category this season. Those numbers were buoyed by a ridiculous stretch from June 22 to 27, where he homered in four of five games and raised his OPS by 37 points.

Marte has a .444/.531/.889 slash line against Los Angeles Angels southpaw Tyler Anderson. This is a three-star play, as Anderson pitched to a 5.73 ERA in four June starts, his third straight month with an ERA of 5.19 or worse.

DraftKings offers the same +140 odds, so there or PointsBet are the no-brainer shops for Marte backers, as he is as low as +115 at FanDuel to drive in a run.

Saturday’s MLB game picks

Upset: Giants ML vs. Mets (+128 via WynnBet) ⭐⭐⭐

The New York Mets are a season-high 10 games under .500 entering the day yet are still sizeable favorites against the San Francisco Giants, who are five games over .500 against teams with winning records this year. Friday’s 5-4 loss in the series opener meant the Mets finished June with a 7-19 record (worst among NL teams), and was their 13th blown lead loss over the last month (most in MLB).

The Mets are favored primarily because Justin Verlander is toeing the rubber. However, New York is 3-7 in his 10 starts this season and has lost four of five. Meanwhile, entering Friday, San Francisco was 28-13 since May 14, a half-game back of the Atlanta Braves for the best record in baseball in that span. A Giants lineup that ranks in the top nine in wRC+, OPS, ISO, and BABIP against right-handed pitching this season should not be this much of an underdog against an overvalued starting pitcher.

San Francisco’s odds have shortened considerably since Friday, where it could have been had for +140 or higher at DraftKings before first pitch. However, we are still happy to back the +128 odds at WynnBet, the only sportsbook offering better than +126 odds.

MLB best bets made 7/1/2023 at 7:36 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”