⚾ MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Tuesday, March 31
After a brutal first couple of days to start the season, my MLB prop bets are +2.75 units as of this past Saturday, and I'm looking to stay hot after a profitable Monday night.
Nothing popped today in terms of strikeouts, but I did find four enticing total bases bets for my MLB player props today. All four of these guys have started the season relatively quietly, but much like our bets themselves, I'm expecting a bounce-back effort today.
We have picks from one of the early games - a 6:40 p.m. ET showdown between the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies - as well as one of the late games, and two in-between, keeping you invested throughout the night.
βΎ MLB player props today: Best prop bet picks for March 31
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ Player prop | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood Over 1.5 bases (+130 via bet365) | 0.4u β 0.92u | Continues to bat leadoff and faces a rookie pitcher today |
| Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 bases (+170 via bet365) | 0.4u β 1.08u | Getting a bump on these odds thanks to lefty-lefty matchup |
| Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 bases (+125 via bet365) | 0.4u β 0.9u | Finger injury has led to sporadic play, but went Over in his first game |
| Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 bases (+140 via bet365) | 0.4u β 0.96u | Broke out last season, and hits should start falling |
Total wagered: 1.6 units | Max profit: 2.26 units
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π° Best MLB player prop bet today
Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 bases (+125)
Jeremy Pena broke his finger during an exhibition contest for the Dominican Republic, and he's played in only two of the Astros' first five games as a result. He went Over this in his first contest before a brutal 0-for-5 showing in his second one. I'm betting on him to rebound today ahead of what should hopefully be consistent playing time.
Pena projects as one of the day's best fantasy batters, and we're getting a good price on this total bases Over likely due to his performance (or lack thereof) so far. We're getting roughly 23% +EV on this bet.
📡 SBR Edge: Can Pena repeat 2025 performance?
Pena was one of the best players in baseball last season on a per-game basis, and if the Astros are going to challenge for the AL West crown, they'll need him to repeat that performance this year.
π₯ More MLB player prop picks
Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 bases (+170)
I've repeatedly bet on Nick Kurtz to hit a home run to start the season, and he remains without a long ball. I didn't go back to the well again today, but I'm making sure I'm still somewhat invested in case today is finally the day.
I don't love Kurtz's home run projection as much as I did in his previous games, but his overall hitting one is still quite good, and these odds are absurd. The next-best price is +141, and we're getting nearly 40% +EV through these odds.
Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 bases (+140)
Much like all of the other players in this article, Spencer Torkelson has been awful this season. However, this is a player who's crushed 31 homers twice in his four-year career. Now, it's possible he's doing an every-other-year weird pattern, but I'll trust the data over that.
Torkelson is projected to have a big day at the plate in Arizona tonight after the Tigers nearly came back to win after going down 8-0 last night. I think that should provide the team with a spark against Brandon Pfaadt and the Diamondbacks, and we're getting better than 22% +EV through these odds to bet on Torkelson being a driving force behind that.
π Best MLB parlay picks today
As I did with my home run predictions, I'm simply combining all four of my best bets here into one parlay. The total odds of +3183represent a 3.05% implied probability, so you could bet more than 0.08 units, but that's what I'm wagering on these early in the season. As the season progresses, I may increase my wager on my player props parlay to 0.2 units.
💵 Best MLB parlay bet today
- James Wood 2+ bases (+130)
- Nick Kurtz 2+ bases (+170)
- Jeremy Pena 2+ bases (+125)
- Spencer Torkelson 2+ bases (+135)
Best odds: +3183 via bet365 (0.08u -> 2.63u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-35 | -6.20 units β | -27.9% β |
| Batter props | 2-3 | -0.52 units β | -16.7% β |
| Parlays | 1-7 | +0.66 units β | +103.9% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB player props today (March 31)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager one full unit on all my main player prop bets, which you can also find on X. In order for a bet to qualify as one of my full-unit picks, it needs to be at least 20% +EV based on more than one projection model. I'm still tinkering with which projection models I want to use for this season, but I have two that are my most trustworthy now.
If a bet is verified by only one projection model, is less than 20% +EV, or is in a market I'm less comfortable betting a full unit on, I'll drop my wager to 0.4 units. That's what you see today's picks listed at, because I don't love betting a full unit on total bases props.
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