⚾ MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Friday, March 27
It's a smaller eight-game slate today, because MLB apparently decided that playing two games in a row after an entire offseason was too much for most teams to handle. So, we have just two MLB player props today, but I promise they're still providing plenty of value.
We already uncovered some solid bets with our Yankees vs. Giants prediction for the afternoon game, but we're moving further into the night for these player prop bets, and I'm targeting strikeout Unders for two pitchers who could make more abbreviated starts.
βΎ MLB player props today: Best prop bet picks for March 27
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ Player prop | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Burrows Under 5.5 strikeouts (+101 via Caesars) | 1u β 2.01u | Not expected to last long in his Astros debut |
| Gavin Williams Under 5.5 strikeouts (+106 via DraftKings) | 1u β 2.06u | Looks to be in for a rough start in Seattle |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 2.07 units
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π° Best MLB player prop bet today
Gavin Williams Under 5.5 strikeouts (+106)
Gavin Williams was extremely fortunate to have a 3.06 ERA last season. His xERA was 4.29, and his FIP was 4.39. He walked batters for fun and gave up a bunch of homers. That's not a great recipe against a team like the Seattle Mariners.
That's exactly why Williams is projected to make a short, ineffective start tonight. Based on his 4.74 strikeout projection, we're getting better than 35% +EV on this bet. Tanner Bibee racked up seven strikeouts last night, and I anticipate the Mariners will make some adjustments before tonight's showdown. I'd play this to odds as short as -105.
📡 SBR Edge: Williams' history against Seattle
Williams has fared well against the Mariners in two starts, with a 2.45 ERA. However, he's managed only nine strikeouts in 11 innings, so he'd have to go six-plus tonight to clear this number at that rate.
π₯ More MLB player prop picks
Mike Burrows Under 5.5 strikeouts (+101)
Unlike Williams, Mike Burrows isn't expected to get absolutely shelled tonight because, well, he's facing the Los Angeles Angels. And yes, it does scare me a bit that Hunter Brown racked up nine strikeouts in less than five innings yesterday, but I think the fact that he didn't make it through five is the key there.
The Angels took four walks against Brown and forced him to throw 102 pitches - yes, I couldn't believe that number when I saw it either - over just 4 2/3. So, if they can work counts in a similar fashion against Burrows tonight, he, too, may make a more abbreviated appearance.
Burrows is projected to finish with 5.06 strikeouts, and we're getting around 22% +EV on this bet based on that number. I'd play this to odds as short as -110.
π Best MLB parlay picks today
I'm combining our two strikeout Unders with a couple of props on batters I bet on earlier today with my home run predictions, focusing on what I believe to be a high-scoring Athletics vs. Blue Jays game.
💵 Best MLB parlay bet today
- Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-107)
- Daulton Varsho Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-126)
- Mike Burrows Under 5.5 strikeouts (+100)
- Gavin Williams Under 5.5 strikeouts (+106)
Best odds: +1289 via DraftKings (0.2u -> 2.78u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1-6 | -3.55 units β | -66.7% β |
| Home run picks | 0-2 | -2 units β | -100% β |
| Other batter props | 1-1 | +0.11 units β | +6.3% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB player props today (March 27)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Generally, I bet a full unit on my top player props each day. I spend an increased amount of time checking the projections and simulating them against the best odds, and I bet on props that show at least 20% +EV via multiple projection models.
Now, it's early in the season and some of the data may be a bit off, so I understand if someone would prefer to wager only 0.5 to 0.75 units on each of these.
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