⚾ MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Thursday, April 2
Despite there being only three games on today's baseball schedule, I've still managed to find two strong, full-unit MLB player props today.
Both are pitching strikeout Unders, which always feels a little dangerous for these Thursdays games, as it's entirely possible every hitter involved just mails it. However, the projections support both of these plays in a big way, so I'll trust the data.
We already cashed the strikeout Under on one of these pitchers this season, so I'm going back to the well as part of my two-pack of picks tonight.
βΎ MLB player props today: Best prop bet picks for April 2
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ Player prop | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo Lopez Under 4.5 strikeouts (-144 via DraftKings) | 1u β 1.69u | Struck out only three over six in his season debut |
| David Peterson Under 4.5 strikeouts (+110 via DraftKings) | 1u β 2.1u | Managed three Ks is less than six innings of work in debut |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.79 units
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π° Best MLB player prop bet today
Reynaldo Lopez Under 4.5 strikeouts (-144)
I bet this earlier this morning at -140, but it's still a fantastic bet here. Reynaldo Lopez is projected for just 3.09 strikeouts, making this nearly 34% +EV.
We see many of the other best sports betting sites hovering around -160 for his strikeout Under, telling us that DraftKings is a bit off with this price. I'd play this to odds as short as -200, so you shouldn't have any problem finding a +EV price throughout the day. If the total drops to 3.5 and the Under is solid plus-money, that's also a good bet.
📡 SBR Edge: Going back to the well with Lopez
I bet on Lopez to go Under this number in his first start, and he finished with just three Ks over six innings. Lopez has managed just 8.05 K/9 as a starter for his career vs. 9.69 as a reliever.
π₯ More MLB player prop picks
David Peterson Under 4.5 strikeouts (+110)
I liked this a lot more this morning when I bet it at +124, but these are still solid odds that provide us with roughly 20% +EV based on David Peterson's strikeout projection today. However, I think we'll continue to see this shorten throughout the day, as many of our best sports betting apps have already moved it closer to +100.
I wouldn't play this to odds any shorter than +100, as you get closer and closer to a "fair" price when this hits minus money. At the +102 available at FanDuel, it's just less than 15% +EV. That's generally the point where I start to look elsewhere or limit my wager size.
π Best MLB parlay picks today
I'm combining both of these strikeout props with two batting props on hitters I picked to go yard with my home run predictions today. The implied probability of these odds is just better than 6%, so you could increase your wager size to roughly 0.15 to 0.2 units. However, because it's a bit of a strange day with only three games at the beginning of the season, I'm sticking with my $10 bet (0.08 units).
💵 Best MLB parlay bet today
- Reynaldo Lopez Under 4.5 strikeouts (-144)
- Drake Baldwin 2+ bases (+112)
- David Peterson Under 4.5 strikeouts (+110)
- Juan Soto 2+ bases (+119)
Best odds: +1546 via DraftKings (0.08u -> 1.32u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-42 | -6.41 units β | -25.6% β |
| Batter props | 3-6 | -1.2 units β | -25.4% β |
| Parlays | 1-9 | +0.50 units β | +63.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB player props today (April 2)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager one full unit on all my main player prop bets, which you can also find on X. In order for a bet to qualify as one of my full-unit picks, it needs to be at least 20% +EV based on more than one projection model. I'm still tinkering with which projection models I want to use for this season, but I have two that are my most trustworthy now.
If a bet is verified by only one projection model, is less than 20% +EV, or is in a market I'm less comfortable betting a full unit on, I'll drop my wager to 0.4 units. If the best odds you can get on Peterson are less than +105, I'd limit my wager size.
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