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MLB Player Prop Bet Predictions Today

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: September 4, 2024 12:00 PM EDT • 3 min 55 sec read.

Yesterday may have been "Dinger Tuesday," but that doesn't mean we can't include a home run pick in today's MLB player prop bets. And who else to ride with than the home run king himself?

Yes, you guessed it. We're backing the MLB MVP odds favorite and ball-destroying machine himself, Aaron Judge, to go yard on Wednesday. We've rarely seen any value on betting on the big man to hit a homer, but it's finally returned following a relative slump.

Along with Judge, we're targeting another player in the AL East, with budding star Bowden Francis back on the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays.

We close things out with two strikeout Unders for pitchers who've struggled mightily for well over a month.

Today’s MLB player props

MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

MLB prop bets for Wednesday

Prediction: Bowden Francis Over 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +128 via bet365 | Implied probability: 43.86%

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Jays righty Francis has been absolutely sensational during his last five starts, racking up 39 strikeouts over 34 innings with a 1.06 ERA and 0.38 WHIP (note, those were not typos).

Francis looks to keep the good times rolling against the Philadelphia Phillies, and his projections suggest he'll put in another strong effort. He's projected to record 5.86 Ks on Wednesday, and these plus-money odds provide us with plenty of value based on that total.

A winning $10 wager would result in $12.80 in profit, and based on his projection, a more fair price would be closer to +100.

Considering our other best sports betting sites are hovering around +115 to back this Over, make sure you act quickly to get these odds at bet365.

Game info: 

  • Phillies vs. Blue Jays
  • Venue: Rogers Centre, Toronto
  • First pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
  • Moneyline: Phillies (-130 via bet365)
  • Total: 8 via bet365

Prediction: Seth Lugo Under 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 55.56%

Formerly one of the Cy Young odds contenders, Lugo has fallen off hard post-All-Star break. He owns a 4.67 ERA over 52 second-half innings, and he's striking out just 6.75 per nine vs. 8.22 in the first half.

Lugo is coming off a nine-strikeout performance in his last time out against the Houston Astros, which has likely helped our cause on Wednesday.

His projection against the Cleveland Guardians is just 3.33, which means these -125 odds at bet365 are providing us with better than 30% positive expected value.

Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, opened with Lugo's strikeout Under priced at +104. It's since moved to -156. Woof.

Game info: 

  • Guardians vs. Royals
  • Venue: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City
  • First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
  • Moneyline: Royals (-135 via bet365)
  • Total: 8.5 via bet365

Prediction: Aaron Judge to hit a home run ⭐⭐

Best odds: +290 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 25.64%

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Speaking of getting a good price thanks to recent performances, we're finally seeing value on a Judge home run following weeks of this prop being priced closer to +200 or shorter.

Judge's home run projection on Wednesday is 0.38, and Pinnacle has shortened this prop from a similar +289 to +233. Additionally, our other best sports betting apps are still hovering around +250 or shorter.

The baseball-crushing machine can't possibly go a third straight series (nine games) without a home run as he chases his own AL record of 62, right?

With Judge still needing 12 more homers to surpass that total, look for him to once again find his groove, this time at the expense of the Rangers' pitching staff.

Game info: 

  • Yankees vs. Rangers
  • Venue: Globe Life Field, Arlington
  • First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
  • Moneyline: Pick'em (via bet365)
  • Total: 8.5 via bet365

Prediction: George Kirby Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

Much like Lugo, Kirby has really slowed down in the second half of the season. One of my favorite AL Cy Young bets just shortly after the All-Star break, Kirby owns a 4.57 ERA in the second half, and he's managing just 7.68 K/9.

One of the big reasons Kirby is struggling to put hitters away this season is his low called-strike percentage. He's actually increased his swinging-strike rate from 2023, but he gets called strikes at the 14th-lowest rate in the league. As a result, he owns the 13th-worst CSW% among qualified pitchers.

Kirby is projected to record just 4.59 punchouts on Wednesday, and he follows teammate Luis Castillo in this series against the Oakland Athetics. Castillo managed just five strikeouts across seven frames on Tuesday, and Kirby could provide a similar performance.

Game info: 

  • Mariners vs. Athletics
  • Venue: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland
  • First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Moneyline: Mariners (-140 via bet365)
  • Total: 7.5 via bet365

MLB betting odds pages

World Series OddsMLB Rookie of the Year OddsMLB Cy Young Award Odds
MLB MVP OddsWorld Series MVP OddsMLB Win Totals
MLB Home Run Derby Odds

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.